Invisible Strengths

An article by Petros Haritatos about "Invisible Strengths" got me thinking about how weak or strong the global underdogs actually are. "Global underdogs" could be defined in two ways - (a) as periphery versus core, or (b) as masses versus elites. Estimating "strength" is an old habit in political science of the kind of Hans Morgenthau and Karl Deutsch. There, "power" is distinguished from "capabilities" ("capabilities" denoting the raw inputs, usable for "power", e.g.,  500 pounds of coffee or 500 soldiers or 500 dollars or 500 experts). Here are some simple figures about "capabilities" --

 

A.   First World - Rest of World
(1) Who has the world's nuclear weapons?
First World:_____USA, France, UK, Israel
Rest of World:___Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, China, India, Pakistan
   
(2) Who has the world's oil (petroleum)?
Proven reserves 1994
First World_____  44,294 million bbls - USA, Norway, Canada, UK, Australia
Rest of World___915,940 million bbls - Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran,
                                                         and 15 (or more) other countries
Ratio of Rest-of-World : First World = 21 : 1
Source= Statesman's Year-Book 1995-96, vol. 132, p. xxvii

 

(3) Who has the world's GDP?
Based on PPP (purchasing power parity valuation, mid-1990s):
First World_____56%
Rest of world___44%

 

It is generally believed that this is an 80/20 split (First world 80%, Rest of World 20%). However, the 80/20 figure is based on U.S. dollar exchange rates, which do not measure the economic strength of the two groups correctly.

 

B.   Elites - Masses
Crude estimates for three categories - (a) global elites, (b) national elites, (c) all other people.

 

(1) How many "global elites" are there?

 

Estimate A:
The annual Davos meetings are attended by about 1000 "global elites". Assuming that for every one attending Davos there are 50 not attending, that leads to an estimate of approximately 50,000 members of the global elite.

 

Estimate B:
Assuming that the corporations listed in the "Fortune500" are the top global corporations and assuming that, in each corporation, there are 100 top executives - that leads to an estimate of 500 times 100 = 50,000 members of the global elite.

 

[for convenience, I will change 50,000 to 60,000 below]

 

Ratio "global elite": global population, approximately:
= 60,000 : 6 billion = 60,000 : 6,000,000,000
= 0.001% : 99.999%
i.e. "global elites" constitute one thousandth of one percent of world population. If it is claimed that the world is ruled by a global elite, then 99.999 percent of the people are ruled by 0.001 percent of the people.

 

(2) How many "national elites" are there?

 

Estimate A:
2% of population -
that leads to a worldwide estimate of  2% of 6 billion=120,000,000=120 million (i.e., all national elites of all countries)

 

Estimate B:
5% of population-
that leads to a worldwide estimate of 5% of 6 billion =300 million national elites of all countries

 

(3) Proportions

 

(a) global elites : national elites
=  60,000 : 120,000,000 =  0.05% : 99.95%
or 60,000 : 300,000,000 =  0.02% : 99.98%
If it is claimed that global elites dominate national elites, then 0.02% of the elites of the world (truly global section) dominate 99.98% of the elites of the world (national sections).

 

(b) global elites : national elites : masses
=  60,000 : 300,000,000 : 6,000,000,000
=  0.001% : 5% : 95%

 

Limitations
Numeric proportions of capabilities are interesting, but do not give a full picture of "power" and the actual or potential relation of forces.

 

Posting from: Gernot Kohler 03 May 2001