Re: Are we in an A phase?

        I am no economist, but I also have little doubt that the world has
entered another Kondratieff A phase, beginning somewhen in the mid-1990s.
To quote Wallerstein, "The economic stagnation which the world-economy has
known since about 1967 will almost certainly be overcome by 1990, and the
world is likely to know a period of seeming prosperity."  (Samir Amin et
al., DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL CRISIS, 1982, p. 12.)  Wallerstein was off by a
few years, but his aim was pretty good.  New ways have been found to
accumulate capital, it is being accumulated, and all this comes as no
surprise.  

        Warren Wagar

On Wed, 26 Jan 2000, Carl H.A. Dassbach wrote:

> Because "the owl of Minerva" as Hegel tells us "only spreads its wings 
>with
> the falling of dusk."  we can only know significant historical events
> retrospectively, after the world is, in Hegel's words  "cut and dried."
> 
> Still, perhaps it may be possible to get a jump on the owl.  It would 
>appear
> to me, and perhaps to the chagrin of many of you wishing for the imminent
> demise of global capitalism, that in the last few years, ca. 1995 to 1997,
> we have passed the lower turning point and have entered another 
>Kondratiev A
> phase.
> 
> Why, first off, the timing is right (although this, by itself is certainly
> not the sole or even main reason for my conclusion).  If we see 1968-1970 
>as
> the beginning of the B phase, the lower turning point should occur 
>somewhere
> in the mid-90's, i.e. if look at the past K-wave periodicities.  Second we
> have the performance of the US economy and a whole set of discussion about
> how "old models" of an economy are no longer valid (The Economist, for
> example, has recently argued that central banks controlling interest rates
> will have less and less impact on economies as credit becomes more widely
> used and more and more institutions participate in credit creation).  
>Third,
> we have an important and fundamental set of innovations, namely, 
>information
> technology - the linking of high speed communication and computer
> technology - which is most clearly manifested in the Internet.  It would
> appear that the Internet "revolution" is driving the economy in new ways 
>and
> resulting in the creation of new men, new organizations, new types of
> businesses and new ways of doing business.  In other words, precisely the
> kind of fundamental transformations which produce an A phase.
> 
> Any comments?
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------
> Carl H.A. Dassbach                                DASSBACH@MTU.EDU
> Dept. of Social Sciences                        (906)487-2115 - Phone
> Michigan Technological Univ.                 (906)487-2468 - Fax
> Houghton, MI  49931                               (906)482-8405 - Private
> 
> 
>