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I'm definitely no economist, and I believe I have a lot to learn. My take
on
the current world political economy sees the collapse of the Warsaw Pact governments as a major factor which has released some of the steam -- taken some of the pressure off and averted, for the time being, a world economic crisis. (By the way, conditions in much of the "periphery" really are at a crisis level -- but like a surgeon who amputates, kills a limb infected with gangrene to avert a system-wide blood poisoning, capitalism seems to have off-loaded much of its crisis onto Africa and Latin America & parts of Eastern Europe.) (Two million in jail in the U.S. ain't to pretty either; add that to the unemployment totals and it isn't so rosy.) The Eastern Bloc collapse has, obviously opened new labor markets to exploit and to use to drive down wages elsewhere as well as selling markets in which to sell some of their overproduced products for now. (Wait until China starts building autombiles by the millions...) But even more important is the question of political consciousness. While many of us believe that the USSR, et.al. ceased to be socialist, or any kind of progressive force decades ago, it nevertheless was a symbol of (false) hope for many people. But now there is a demoralization, slowly being overcome, that has allowed the working class to just accept the increased oppression, rather than fight back. This will change, but not in the immediate future. Capitalism's structural problems will continue. No amount of trying to be "prudent" will be able to avert inter-imperialist war forever. Human history is choices, but choices take place within the limits of choices that were made earlier. Nobody may "want" a major inter-imperialist war, but gambling on such a war may seem to be a better choice than economic/political/military domination. I for one, won't make any bets on how things might align. It could be U.S. versus Russia, with China sitting it out. Or US versus China, with Russia sitting it out. Or maybe India will ally with Russia and Iran/Pakistan will ally with China. Or maybe Russia will ally with China......THAT would be a nightmare for Wall Street. And Japan and/or Germany? They might sit it out. Then again, I wouldn't rule out U.S. versus Germany or Japan. It may seem far fetched, but by 2020, the memories of WWII will be 75 years old. And new crises will be emerging. The world leaders at that point may or may not share the prudent attitude we'd like them to have. One thing I like about the WSN is that many of the writers have a good understanding of history. The broad sweeps, major wars, conquests, empires and collapses, and especially the unexpected, but perhaps predictable reversals that have been a part of history need to be understood so that we don't become complacent and think that things will just continue on the way they have for the past 30 years or so... Alan Spector -----Original Message----- From: wwagar@binghamton.edu <wwagar@binghamton.edu> To: WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK <wsn@csf.colorado.edu> Cc: WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK <wsn@csf.colorado.edu> Date: Wednesday, January 26, 2000 5:07 PM Subject: Re: Are we in an A phase? > > I am no economist, but I also have little doubt that the world has >entered another Kondratieff A phase, beginning somewhen in the mid-1990s. >To quote Wallerstein, "The economic stagnation which the world-economy has >known since about 1967 will almost certainly be overcome by 1990, and the >world is likely to know a period of seeming prosperity." (Samir Amin et >al., DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL CRISIS, 1982, p. 12.) Wallerstein was off by a >few years, but his aim was pretty good. New ways have been found to >accumulate capital, it is being accumulated, and all this comes as no >surprise. > > Warren Wagar > >On Wed, 26 Jan 2000, Carl H.A. Dassbach wrote: > >> Because "the owl of Minerva" as Hegel tells us "only spreads its wings with >> the falling of dusk." we can only know significant historical events >> retrospectively, after the world is, in Hegel's words "cut and dried." >> >> Still, perhaps it may be possible to get a jump on the owl. It would appear >> to me, and perhaps to the chagrin of many of you wishing for the imminent >> demise of global capitalism, that in the last few years, ca. 1995 to 1997, >> we have passed the lower turning point and have entered another Kondratiev A >> phase. >> >> Why, first off, the timing is right (although this, by itself is certainly >> not the sole or even main reason for my conclusion). If we see 1968-1970 as >> the beginning of the B phase, the lower turning point should occur somewhere >> in the mid-90's, i.e. if look at the past K-wave periodicities. Second we >> have the performance of the US economy and a whole set of discussion about >> how "old models" of an economy are no longer valid (The Economist, for >> example, has recently argued that central banks controlling interest rates >> will have less and less impact on economies as credit becomes more widely >> used and more and more institutions participate in credit creation). Third, >> we have an important and fundamental set of innovations, namely, information >> technology - the linking of high speed communication and computer >> technology - which is most clearly manifested in the Internet. It would >> appear that the Internet "revolution" is driving the economy in new ways and >> resulting in the creation of new men, new organizations, new types of >> businesses and new ways of doing business. In other words, precisely the >> kind of fundamental transformations which produce an A phase. >> >> Any comments? >> >> >> -------------------------------------- >> Carl H.A. Dassbach DASSBACH@MTU.EDU >> Dept. of Social Sciences (906)487-2115 - Phone >> Michigan Technological Univ. (906)487-2468 - Fax >> Houghton, MI 49931 (906)482-8405 - Private >> >> >> > > |