Are we in an A phase?

Because "the owl of Minerva" as Hegel tells us "only spreads its wings with
the falling of dusk."  we can only know significant historical events
retrospectively, after the world is, in Hegel's words  "cut and dried."

Still, perhaps it may be possible to get a jump on the owl.  It would appear
to me, and perhaps to the chagrin of many of you wishing for the imminent
demise of global capitalism, that in the last few years, ca. 1995 to 1997,
we have passed the lower turning point and have entered another Kondratiev A
phase.

Why, first off, the timing is right (although this, by itself is certainly
not the sole or even main reason for my conclusion).  If we see 1968-1970 as
the beginning of the B phase, the lower turning point should occur somewhere
in the mid-90's, i.e. if look at the past K-wave periodicities.  Second we
have the performance of the US economy and a whole set of discussion about
how "old models" of an economy are no longer valid (The Economist, for
example, has recently argued that central banks controlling interest rates
will have less and less impact on economies as credit becomes more widely
used and more and more institutions participate in credit creation).  Third,
we have an important and fundamental set of innovations, namely, information
technology - the linking of high speed communication and computer
technology - which is most clearly manifested in the Internet.  It would
appear that the Internet "revolution" is driving the economy in new ways and
resulting in the creation of new men, new organizations, new types of
businesses and new ways of doing business.  In other words, precisely the
kind of fundamental transformations which produce an A phase.

Any comments?


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Carl H.A. Dassbach                                DASSBACH@MTU.EDU
Dept. of Social Sciences                        (906)487-2115 - Phone
Michigan Technological Univ.                 (906)487-2468 - Fax
Houghton, MI  49931                               (906)482-8405 - Private