Re: Dassbach, Tausch, Kondratieff, democratic peace

----- Original Message -----
From: Richard N Hutchinson <rhutchin@U.Arizona.EDU>
To: WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK <wsn@csf.colorado.edu>
Cc: WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK <wsn@csf.colorado.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, January 26, 2000 12:56 PM
Subject: Dassbach, Tausch, Kondratieff, democratic peace


> OK, I'll bite, in the interest of firing up a discussion.
>
> My understanding of Chase-Dunn's prediction of core war in around 2025 is
> precisely that it would correspond to the tail end of an A phase.  Someone
> correct me if I'm wrong.  So saying we are entering an A phase does not
> contradict the prospect of a future inter-imperialist war at all.  Of
> course the timing is all-important, and so we need to know whether we're
> entering an A phase in order to prepare for the onset of the B phase.
> This is an empirical question that needs to be addressed, obviously.
>
> On the "democratic peace" hypothesis, as Gunder has pointed out, it is not
> a settled question.  Russett's findings are strong, but I am left
> thinking that the model is misspecified.  One obvious problem is that
> democracies can "revert," as did Germany.  It seems to me that history
> points much more strongly toward a continuation of major wars than toward
> the pleasant and, in my opinion, utopian view that democratization is
> bringing universal peace in any near future.  Norman Angell wrote a widely
> acclaimed book a few short years before World War I predicting the same
> thing.  "The End of History"?  I don't think so -- not yet.
>
> Part of the dispute is over timing.  Is a core war likely in the immediate
> future?  No.  In that sense Tausch would seem to be correct.  But the
> issue in world-system/world historical terms is the medium-term future,
> which is harder to read off of current headlines.
>
> RH
>
>
>