Dassbach, Tausch, Kondratieff, democratic peace

OK, I'll bite, in the interest of firing up a discussion.

My understanding of Chase-Dunn's prediction of core war in around 2025 is
precisely that it would correspond to the tail end of an A phase.  Someone
correct me if I'm wrong.  So saying we are entering an A phase does not
contradict the prospect of a future inter-imperialist war at all.  Of
course the timing is all-important, and so we need to know whether we're
entering an A phase in order to prepare for the onset of the B phase.
This is an empirical question that needs to be addressed, obviously.

On the "democratic peace" hypothesis, as Gunder has pointed out, it is not
a settled question.  Russett's findings are strong, but I am left
thinking that the model is misspecified.  One obvious problem is that
democracies can "revert," as did Germany.  It seems to me that history
points much more strongly toward a continuation of major wars than toward
the pleasant and, in my opinion, utopian view that democratization is
bringing universal peace in any near future.  Norman Angell wrote a widely
acclaimed book a few short years before World War I predicting the same
thing.  "The End of History"?  I don't think so -- not yet.

Part of the dispute is over timing.  Is a core war likely in the immediate
future?  No.  In that sense Tausch would seem to be correct.  But the
issue in world-system/world historical terms is the medium-term future,
which is harder to read off of current headlines.

RH