Caspian pipeline accord means more wars

The Caspian pipeline accord announced today in Istanbul confirms
that the US/NATO war against Yugoslavia earlier this year was part of
a larger US strategy for achieving domination of Southeastern Europe
and Southwest Asia, a region previously controlled substantially by
the USSR.  It should put to rest any lingering support for the
fiction that the US/NATO war was a humanitarian crusade to prevent
ethnic cleansing.

The excerpts below are from the article that appeared today in the NY 
Times.  They make it clear that the U.S. is playing a very dangerous 
game with Russia.  The U.S. is trying to remain "engaged" with 
Russia, while attacking Russia's vital interests.  It is only a 
matter of time before U.S.-Russian relations become much more 
adversarial than they already have become since the war.

The settlement that the victorious powers in World War I imposed on 
Germany was a major factor leading to the rise of Nazism there.  
Germany's empire was dismembered, German territory was allocated to 
neighboring states, and the German economy and military were severely 
weakened.  Eventually, the German ruling class went all out to 
reverse its position.

Russia's situation is in many ways similar to that of Weimar Germany. 
The settlement after it lost the Cold War has been equally punitive.  
It's empire has been destroyed, and its economy and military have 
been wrecked.  Russian political parties are pushing varieties of 
nationalist fascist ideologies.  1929 has already occurred in Russia. 
It's economy is in a depression.  Approximately half of the workers 
do not even get paid.

When Hitler began to reassert German imperialist interests, he did 
not directly confront his main adversaries.  He knew his weakness and 
moved cautiously and stealthily.  Russia will no doubt have to do the 
same.  Eventually, however, confrontation is likely to occur.

Other factors in this equation are important.  Will Russia and China 
be able to form an alliance against the U.S.?  Will European 
countries such as Germany and France side with the U.S. or with 
anti-U.S. forces.

With the U.S. as the lone super-power, all other imperialist rivals 
have something to gain from weakening the U.S.  An example of this 
pattern can be seen in the worldwide demonstrations taking place this 
weekend in solidarity with Puerto Ricans opposed to the U.S. use of 
the island of Vieques as a bombing range.  Especially in Latin 
America and Europe there is considerable support for any movement 
that opposes U.S. imperialism.

In the short term there are likely to be more wars like those in the
Balkans, the Caspian region, the Persian Gulf, and Central Africa. 
In the longer term--how long is obviously difficult to
estimate--sharpening inter-imperialist rivalry will lead toward a
third world war.

Everything we do now to build a movement of people dedicated to 
ending capitalism all over the world will help to limit the 
destructiveness of that war and ensure that it will be the last such 
catastrophe capitalism inflicts on humanity.

Steve Rosenthal

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

New York Times:  November 19, 1999

THE CASPIAN ACCORD: Caspian Lands Back a Pipeline Pushed by West 

By STEPHEN KINZER

[Excerpts]

ISTANBUL -- Four nations in the Caspian Sea region took a giant step
on Thursday toward embracing one of President Clinton's cherished
foreign policy projects, a pipeline that would assure Western control
over the potentially vast oil and natural gas reserves. 

At a ceremony in Istanbul, the presidents of Georgia, Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan and Turkey agreed to support building of a pipeline that
would carry Caspian oil to ports in the West on a route that does not
pass through Russia or Iran. 

Construction of this pipeline, estimated at $2.4 billion, would give
the United States and other Western countries access to an important
new source of energy. But the main significance was that it would
draw the new nations near the Caspian, which were part of the Soviet
Union only a decade ago, away from Russia and give the United States
greater influence in the region. 

The accord was signed Thursday during a summit meeting of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, where much of
the topic was the conflict in Chechnya. But the pipeline could turn
out eventually to do more to weaken Russia's hold over the Caucasus
and Central Asia. 

"This is a major foreign policy victory," Secretary of Energy Bill
Richardson said. "It is a strategic agreement that advances
America's national interest." 

Just how much oil lies beneath the Caspian and in the surrounding
lands is subject to debate. Without doubt, oil experts say, the
region has more oil than Alaska, probably at least as much as the
North Sea, and possibly half as much as Saudi Arabia.

For several years, the United States has been courting the leaders of
Caspian nations, telling them that their future lies not with Russia
or Iran but with the West.

Outside powers have been waging an intense political battle for
control of Caspian energy resources and the political influence that
those resources represent. All agree that the battle is not simply
about oil and gas. Its outcome will shape the future of one of the
world's most turbulent regions. 

Russia offered an alternative route from Baku, but it passes through
Chechnya and is considered unreliable. 

The accord signed Thursday was accompanied by an "intergovernmental
declaration" of intent to build a second major pipeline. It would
carry the enormous gas resources of Turkmenistan to gas-starved
Turkey through a pipeline that would be laid under the Caspian to
Baku. If both this line and the oil line from Baku to Ceyhan are
built, the West will have won control over the key resource of
Central Asia and the Caucasus. 

"What was signed today is only a step forward if it can be converted
into something real, and it's not at all clear that it can be
converted fast enough to make difference in these states," Martha
Brill Olcott, an American scholar who is a leading expert on the
Caucasus and Central Asia, said in a telephone interview from
Washington.  You have to ask whether these states will still exist
in a few years as they do today." "Chechnya is just the beginning of
what we're going to face in this region. Russia is not going to sit
back quietly as, from its perspective, the United States tries to
undermine its vital strategic interests there."