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The fact that Washington dithered over the East Timorese
crisis and eventually backed an force entering Timor to stabilise the situation
may be understood as a signal from Washington that East Timor is not at the top
of its agenda. If one looks at the totally different way in which Washington
hyped up the matter of the invasion of Iraq before it mounted its attack one can
see that there is some justification for Jakarta concluding that Washington is
not prepared to go as far as it can to establish East Timorese independence. One
of the principal factors that may discourage Indonesian belligerence is the
domestic turmoil it is itself facing. But then this may be a reason to use Timor
to play the nationalist card. Indeed the anti-Australian mobilisation around the
Australian embassy in Jakarta may support this thesis.
The fact that Canberra is spearheading the invasion on the
ground can be viewed as an another indication that Washington is not very
serious concerning the establishment of East Timorese independence. Such
ambiguity on the part of Washington can lead to worsening the problem. In the
first place Jakarta may feel more encouraged to resist through the mounting of a
guerrilla campaign through West Timor to get its way in part if not in full. On
the other hand Canberra's confidence in its new role may be less strident
because of the ambiguity created by Washington's apparent lack of resolve. All
this can quite foreseeably lead to the situation becoming increasingly
intricate, all encompassing and more dirty. And of course the Timorese
masses will be the pawns in all this. Already Canberra has demonstrated at this
early stage how the situation can easily spiral out of control with the Howard
and Moore gaffes. All their statements have achieved is the increased alienation
of Jakarta and perhaps of other powers in the region. Indeed the very trust that
exists among ASEAN countries is the fact that Jakarta, a key member of ASEAN,
has successfully urged some of these countries to send forces into East Timor as
part of the UN force as a counterweight to Canberra's forces. This is an
indication of the distrust among ASEAN of both the West and Australia and its
kid brother New Zealand.
Warm regards
George Pennefather Be free to check out our Communist Think-Tank web site
at
http://homepage.tinet.ie/~beprepared/ |