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A few tentative observations on East Timorese
developments.
It is clear that the imperialist forces that have descended
on East Timor to ostensibly protect the civilian population against the
pro-independence "militia" are a mere pretext for direct imperialist
intervention to protect and advance the class interests of the imperialist
bourgeoisie.
Now that the cold war period is effectively over imperialism
no longer relies in the same way on the kind of regime that has ruled over
Indonesia. Consequently it can suffer a facade of East Timorese
independence involving formal democratic structures.
Imperialism has directly intervened in East Timor in order to
protect and develop its oppressive hold over the world. East Timor will be
effectively another "invisible" colony of imperialism. Australian capitalism is
required to do Washington's work for a variety of reasons. One of them is
Beijing. If Washington was to walk into East Timor as the main player China
would become increasingly worried concerning the former's strategic
intentions. China is highly sensitive to any direct intervention by Washington
in that part of the world. Consequently direct military intervention by the
Americans would most probably lead to a deterioration in relations between
Beijing and Washington. At a time when relations between them have already
deteriorated after its intervention in Kosova and its bombing of the Chinese
embassy Washington would merely reduce the options available. Some other powers
in that part of the world would experience greater uneasiness with a relatively
large scale American military intervention too.
Any direct military intervention by the US might encourage
closer co-operation between Russia and China. Already these two powers have been
drawing closer together in the face of the growing power of American
imperialism. Direct military intervention in East Timor would only encourage
Russia/ Chinese unity. Furthermore it might also lead to greater unity
between these two powers and other lesser powers under the threat from an
increasingly powerful interventionist Washington. Consequently Washington
has to avoid making moves that would foster unity around a
Russian/Chinese axis. In view of this the ideal player for the role of
chief bourgeois crusader is Australia. It is an "Asian" power and has been
conducting itself over the last while --before the current difficulty-
within that context rather than as a Western power within Asia.
Jakarta, on the other hand, if forced could play the
Asian card and thereby increase bourgeois instability in that region. This could
only but upset Washington strategic plans. This is what Washington fears even
though it is a highly unlikely scenario. Jakarta can play this card by making
things difficult for Cosgrove in East Timor through its deployment and
reactivation of --its Trojan horse-- the "militia" in East Timor. By
re-activating this force it can make things so difficult for Australia as
to undermine its ability to impose and maintain imperialist stability in
East Timor. As the situation there deteriorates --getting increasingly messy--
Canberra would be forced to pour more and more troops into the island. This
force the Australian bourgeoisie to introduce conscription. This development
together with the body bags returning home could adversely impact on the
Australian regime. The conditions for the emergence of a mass anti-war protests
might be created. There is always the remote possibility then that East Timor
could lead to growing bourgeois instability in Australia itself and the
consequent radicalisation of Australian politics. Apart from all this Australia
would be effectively finished as a regional power --for some time-- capable of
conducting the current kind of intervention in that region. Obviously neither
Canberra nor Washington would be pleased with such a state of affairs. This
would significantly upset Washington's strategic plans since no longer could it
hope to use Australia to serve as its lieutenant in that region. Canberra's loss
of credibility would further destabilise the situation in that part of the world
and correspondingly strengthen China's regional status.
Furthermore Washington, under such circumstances, would be
forced to intervene militarily in East Timor thereby exposing its naked
imperialist aggressive intentions to other powers in that region thereby
prompting them to seek protection under a Russia/China umbrella. The one thing
Washington does not want is a Russian/Chinese bloc that includes other Asian
powers. To avoid this Washington might be prepared to hand back East Timor to
Indonesia.
At present the main danger facing many powers in the world is
the growing power of US imperialism in the absence of an effective
counterweight as the Soviet Union had been until its demise. With the Soviet
"menace" gone it is becoming increasingly clear that the American "menace" is
the new kid in town. It is becoming increasingly clear US imperialism, under the
guise of "humanitarianism", is the new and growing danger to the freedom and
sovereignty of many countries. What is now being gropingly sought is an
effective counterweight to American expansionism --its new frontierism. The one
thing that can unite China, Russia and Europe is their fear of an increasingly
powerful US. The one thing they share in common is their growing fear of
Washington. Among Washington's aims is the conduct of a strategic policy in such
a way as to hinder and even prevent such a growing unity which might prove be
extremely threatening to the US. In the aftermath of the cold war we are living
in a period where a radical readjustment in international relations is
proceeding. This readjustment introduces great uncertainty and fluidity to the
world situation. This is why the waters are so muddy and will even get muddier
before they settle down--if they do.
If Washington gets enmeshed in East Timor it can quite easily
be perceived as a nakedly imperialist aggressor that must be challenged. The
emergence of such a perception can quite easily lead to huge difficulties for
Washington. It must be remembered too that the Indonesian control of West Timor
serves as a base from which various kinds of attacks can be launched against any
forces based in East Timor. This gives Indonesia a natural strategic advantage
over both Australia and the United States. Even if a formal East Timorese
independence is established a permanent Australian or American force may
have to be permanently stationed in East Timor. This means that Indonesia
depending on the situation can use West Timor as a base from which to launch
attacks or sorties on either the security forces based in East Timor as a means
of destabilising the situation or as a means of exerting leverage on Washington.
Depending on how the situation evolves this kind of activity can be used
to make Washington look like an imperialist aggressor and even weaken its grip
on Asia. Washington does not want to have to abandon its "ethical" foreign
policy since it has been in the recent past quite effective at concealing its
real aggressive and oppressive intentions. It has also been a useful strategic
device for rally support for its actions.
A big problem facing Indonesia is the instability it has been
experiencing against the backdrop of recent economic meltdown. In exerting any
leverage this may weaken its resolve. There is always the danger that Washington
can threaten Jakarta with further domestic destabilisation if attempts to use
its leverage to discredit Canberra. However there are limits to such threats
since Washington may fear the break up of Indonesia to its own class interests.
And then under conditions where things are so bad Jakarta may believe it has
little to loose.
Warm regards
George Pennefather Be free to check out our Communist Think-Tank web site
at
http://homepage.tinet.ie/~beprepared/ |