Re: The future of war: Globalism or Imperialism?

two points in response to alan spector's thoughtful discussion:

1. despite the strong emergence of global capitalism the old dynamics of
the interstate system are still operating. the next 30 years will be a
contest in which the U.S. will try to stay on top as leader of a
coalition of core capitalists but there will be a strong tendency for
other core states to revert to nationalism and develop their own
autonomous military capability. a 3rd alternative might be a UN-led
global state with serious military capability. this could be more
authentically democratic than a renewal of US hegemony.

because world war III would likely mean the end of life on Earth for
quite a while, we need to think about realistic alternatives.  renewed
interimperial rivalry  among core states based on military capabilities
is a death sentence for us all. so the alternatives  are:
1. renewed US hegemony or
2. a global state formed around the UN.

the latter is preferable to me. the UN is not very democratic now, but
it could be reformed to be more democratic.  unfortunately this is not
very likely to happen within the relevant time horizon, so the renewed
US hegemony may be the least worst realistic alternative. In any case we
must do all that we can to prevent another pre-World War I situation
from developing.

These ideas are better presented in C.Chase-Dunn and B. Podobnik, "The
Next World War: World-System Cycles and Trends"
http://csf.colorado.edu/wsystems/jwsr/vol1/v1_n6.htm

2. a global counter-hegemonic movement based on an alliance of workers,
environmentalists, indigenous peoples, and the global women's movement
is likely to emerge as a strong force in the next decades in opposition
to neoliberalism and global capital. this movement will be supported by
people in all countries, but especially by democratic socialist
movements and regimes that will emerge in semiperipheral states. this
movement is our best hope for building a sustainable and democratic
global commonwealth. it will have to try to prevent the two dooms (world
war III and eco-disaster), but if they cannot be prevented then the
reaction to them will need to be used to create a world society in which
such outcomes are impossible.
some of these arguments are presented in Terry Boswell and Christopher
Chase-Dunn.
_The Spiral of Capitalism and Socialism: Toward Global Democracy_
forthcoming from Lynne Rienner in about November 1999.

chriscd