warfare scenario for XXI

Wed, 9 Apr 1997 16:11:16 -0600 (NSK)
Nikolai S. Rozov (ROZOV@cnit.nsu.ru)

i have a scenario of probable warfare in future 15-30 years based on
generalizations of geopolitical behavior of both world-imperial (pre-1945
Germany and Japan, Russia and China) and core-of-world-economy powers (UK,
then USA in Crimean War, WWI and WWII)

generalization 1
world-empire that managed to convert richnesss into militry advantage over
neibours, sooner or later will try to expand, but usually it tries to
choose most weak victim for its aggression

generalization 2
core power tries to provoke war between world-empires, then helps to suppress
the most dangerous aggressor, then on the base of "self-determination"
ideology benefits from division (collapse) of empires, creation new nation-
states that opens new wide field for economic expansion of the core

if both these are true (corrections are welcomed), one can imagine the
following future drama in condition that current geoeconomic trends will not
change radically (just a theoretical model, not more):

2005-15. China tries to annex south 'Chinese' and semi-Chinese rich economies
Gong Hong, Taiwan, Malaisia, Singapour, Tailand but meets with harsh military
political and economic response from US and G7

2015-30. China turnes to the North: Mongolia, Middle Asia, Primorie (last 2
were annexed by Russia only 130 years ago)
US and G7 observe calmly the fight of giants - Russia and China
(just as Russia and Germany in WWI and WWII)

(one can expect
here parallel geopolitical press on Russia from Islam on Caucasis,
Estonia and Finland in the North-West, Afganistan in the South, Japan in
Kurils and Sachalin, growing separatism in Tumen, Primorie, Iakutia, Tuva,
Altai, escalation of elit conflicts in Moscow, following Russian defeat to
China that can provoke Moscow to use nuclear weapon)

After the choc, signes of mutual tiredness of war, or dangerous hyper-success
(of China?) the most succesive aggressor will be stopped by US and G7

The last powers become main 'civilized peace referee' and will manage to help
separation of Primorie, Tuva, Iakutia, Middle Asia, maybe Kamchtka, Chukotka,
Sibir from Russia,
and Tibet, Uiguria, Manjuria maybe some most rich maritime provinces from

Surely some final bright military operations of US and UK Navy (almost
victimless) will allow future mainstream ideologists to sing halliluia to
Braveness and Courage of Western forces that saved world civilization
(remember recent western celebration (of victory over Hitler) in Normandia to
which Russia has not been even invited)

i would be grateful for arguments both pro and contra this sgenario

peace for all