> i have a scenario of probable warfare in future 15-30 years based on
> generalizations of geopolitical behavior of both world-imperial (pre-1945
> Germany and Japan, Russia and China) and core-of-world-economy powers (UK,
> then USA in Crimean War, WWI and WWII)
> [snip]
> i would be grateful for arguments both pro and contra this sgenario
An interesting possibility, Nicolai. You might consider the following
as an alternate or, possibly, a semi-complinetary scenario:
2000-2005:
Extension of alliances between private military forces and TNC's with
ASEAN nations leads to the development of an information age
economic-military structure in the ASEAN nations. Increased
international propoganda war, centering on Tibet, South China and the
take over of Hong Kong leads to increased informational skirmishes
between ASEAN and China. Various acts of "cyber-terrorism" used in an
attempt to disrupt Chinese computer systems, followed with a series
of strategic assasinations, and increased attempts to fracture
Chinese society along provincial lines.
2005-2010:
Chinese centralist reactions to external pressure, limited (and
masked) civil war in China agains "pro-democratic forces" and various
"military" warlords (i.e. specific divisions and Army Groups in S,
China which control certain industries). Increasing propaganda
attacks by China on "western" interference.
2010-2015:
Your invasion scenario.
2015-2018:
Surgical strikes by commandoes (both military and informational -
e.g. A-Life aganets) on central planning organization of China.
Limited "nationalist" uprisings in S. China, Tibet, etc. (i.e.
peripheral areas of the Chinese Imperium); an official return of the
Chinese "manifest destiny" ideology (already evident in Tibet).
2018-2020:
Extension of the information war against Western powers and ASEAN
nations; simultaneous invasion of ASEAN, etc (per your scenario of
southern invasion); limited use of biochemical warfare on southern
front; threat-counterthreat on the northern border (nuclear);
surgical use of nuclear weapons (probably neutron warhead, short
range cruise) in major Chinese cities (probably Beijing) by ASEAN
and TNC special forces groups; Chinese support for radical Islamic
groups in Russian Federation and other ex-Soviet SSR's.
2020+:
Well, its too hairy to guess from here; probably WW III.
Nicolai, the reason I propose this form of a scenario is that most of
the G7 nations, and a number of other nations as well (including
ASEAN) are moving into information age military strategies. This type
of strategy works by eliminating the information processing
capabilities of opponents and, hence, rendering their entire
industrial age military complex useless. You may still have the
armies, but if you have no officers, or if they are out solely for
themselves, then you can have no government.
The comments about TNC's and private armies derives from one
"corporation" that already exists in Africa as an "independant"
contractor (cf the recent Liberian civil war).
While I think that a southern front is most likely in any Chinese
expansion policy, the last time they invaded Vietnam, they got their
troops choped up. Such an invasion this time would only serve to
demoralize their troops further and, if coupled with an increased
ideological war in the heartland of the Chinese Imperium, their
morale would already be pretty low.
Anyway, I just though I would stick in my two cents.
Marc
Marc W.D. Tyrrell
PhD. Candidate
Department of Sociology and Anthropology,
Carleton University