This is in reply to Edward Tiryakian's comment as to whether Randall Collins
correctly predicted the Soviet collapse before 1990. Yes, he did in fact do
so. He wrote an essay around 1980 in which he predicted the collapse based on
the Soviet overextension of its empire. To the best of my knowledge, this
essay was first published in his 1986 book, Weberian Sociological Theory. The
article he published with David Waller in 1992 is simply an updated version of
his original argument.
However, the correct prediction may be a piece of luck. I'm not convinced that
Collins's explanation is the right one, although he may indeed be on to
something. His argument is definitely worth serious consideration.
Stephen Sanderson