Arguments for borrowing cycles.

 My best argument is curve N°6. It warns of down turns
in demand for 2000, 2001 and 2003, which have nothing
to do with dotcoms, 9/11, Iraq or the chinese
syndrome. It also warns of the return of high rates of
inflation and interest, in 2004 and 2005. The upturn
of the Kondratieff wave means lots of public
borrowing. Nothing to do with...whatever the excuse
happens to be.
 Curve N°6 becomes a forecast of events if one
considers the curves 1, 2, 3 and 5 to be borrowing
cycles. The official version (as it seems to be) of
cycles is unable to forecast anything, as it has no
grasp of what is going on. If a "complex system"
simply breaks down into cycles of 3, 9.5, 19 and 57
years and maintains these rhythms for over a century
without cause or reason, other than its own
complexity, there is no possible interpretation of
these ups and downs. Whereas I have tried to explain
each cycle individually, before adding them together
to produce complexity. And I didn't reach this
conclusion haphazardly. Starting with:
 Marx divides production into seperate departments:
investment, consumption and luxury consumption. But,
whatever sens this may have made in the 1860's, it's
useless to-day. As it is quite impossible to define
the limts of each department. For example, is the
production of electricity part of department 1, 2 or
3? However, the result of production, the commodities
themselves (goods and services) can be defined as
belonging to two seperate categories, according to
their usage. On the one hand, demand is for
commodities which can either transmit their value, or
acquire more value. On the other, demand is for
commodities which can neither transmit their value,
nor acquire more value. This means that identical
commodities can belong to both categories.
 Departments of production cannot be identified.
Whereas two categories of demand can be precisely
defined.
        Regards, Kenneth 

___________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!? -- Une adresse @yahoo.fr gratuite et en français !
Yahoo! Mail : http://fr.mail.yahoo.com