Re: Kondratieff.

 Klaus,
        If you have read Schumpeter, you may remember
these curves (Business Cycles, p.213). And have
noticed that the coincidence of 1929 and 1987 is just
one year out, at the middle of the second stage of the
K-cycle. They place 2004 at the beginning of a new
longwave. However, by adding a Kuznets cycle, the
resulting calendar of growth(curve N°6) is a much
better representation of reality than was Schumpeter's
original(curve N°4). The "hard times" after WW2 are
shown, as are those for the coming seven years.
 The curves are there, since 1939, and their
predictions have turned out to be quite good. But most
people won't admit the existance of business cycles.
And those who do, seem incapable of explaining them.
Schumpeter, for example, seeks their causes in supply
and new technology. While carefully avoiding the
question of the precise duratuions of the various
cycles. I am personally convinced that growth cycles
are caused by demand and debt. I would welcome a
debate on this subject. 
          Regards, Kenneth

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