Re: Kondratieff

As anybody who studies K-waves knows, they are only fashionable during
B-phases, ergo the silence of the "sages and prophets."

It is quite conceivable (and can be argued) that we entered an A-phase in
about 1995.  The timing is right, ca 25 years since the last inflection
point - 1970 -  as are the characteristics of the "boom" of the late 90s' -
the clustering of innovations (in the broad sense of the term and not simply
as new material technology), new mechanisms of "credit" creation, etc.

But even if we (and the question "we" is important) are in an A-phase, this
does not mean a period of continuous prosperity.  Continuous prosperity is
NOT the characteristic of an A-phase.  Instead, during A-phases the periods
of prosperity exceed those of recession/depression (while a b -phase is the
opposite). Second, and more importantly, it is far too early to tell since
the characteristic of the period can only be understood in terms of the
overall period ("the owl of Minerva only flies with the falling of dusk').

Carl Dassbach