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Re: Kondratieff
by Threehegemons
09 April 2003 03:20 UTC
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In a message dated 4/8/2003 7:05:07 PM Eastern Standard Time, Nemonemini writes:

>  have a question. Ken says that the world-economy has been
> depressed for the past 3 decades. The general understanding among
> world-systems people is that the world-economy entered a B-wave in the
> Kondratieff cycle as early as 1968, and no later than the early 1970s.
> Are we still riding that B-wave, 35 years down the road? Isn't this a
> longish time, and can anybody reasonably forecast the 
> arrival of an A-wave
> any time soon? Or is Kondratieff no longer working?

I recall that Wallerstein used to say the B-phase would end around 1990, maybe 
a little later.  I've heard him say we are still in the B-phase.  But he also 
deemphasizes Kondratieff's since they aren't as important as the 'bifurcation' 
Arrighi doesn't seem to have much use for Kondratieff's these days--he barely 
mentions them in Long Twentieth Century and Chaos and Governance.

I think it was Wally Goldfrank who claimed at an ASA roundtable a couple of 
years ago that we are now in the a-phase.  I'm pretty sure Marxist economist 
Anwar Sheik has a similar view.  And Chase-Dunn?  Maybe he is on this list?  Or 
can someone illuminate us on his view? AGF?  Your view?

Steven Sherman

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