Re: WS and GF

Lloyd DeMause’s response to this discussion follows.  His graph in “War as Righteous Rape and Purification” is somewhat smaller & in parallel with the size of his text (but it can be copied to a larger format on a paint program like Microsoft’s to be studied better; it worked for me when I tried it).  It may help to consider your own material and Bruce’s in light of this graph and the rest of Lloyd’s discussion in that chapter.  And, if you or Bruce [or anyone on WSN] would like subscribe and to take up some of this conversation on the PH list, by all means do so.  Without further ado here’s that post.

To John Landon: … By the way, how does your own material from the Eonic Effect square up with this K-wave stuff for the modern and DeMause’s GF cycles?   Any impt. implications you can think of in all this (lengthening K’s, eighteen year cycles, GF cycles, “better childrearing as historical variable, evolutionary source of change”)? …  Might the latter, especially, be related to your discussion of an increasing sense of freedom in the Modern? … Your thoughts?

Luke R.

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<… For this reason, I pass your question along to Lloyd DeMause and the others at the PH List. They may have a clearer notion of what ís going on here (psychohistorically/via GF) w/ what you’re describing better th/ I do at this point. … Lloyd & Company: What do you think?>

Lloyd responds:

In my book "The Emotional Life of Nations" (chapter 6; all on www.psychohistory.com) I graph out how the war cycle and business cycle follows the Kondratiev economic cycle in the "classic" period (1750-1950) of the group-fantasy cycle (four phases: innovative, depression, manic, war) for America. I also at the end of the chapter say with better childrearing (the historical variable, the evolutionary source of change) we are trying to reduce world wars and world-wide depressions to merely (!) local wars and recessions. I also point out that small wars and recessions can come at nearly the same time (to work off growth panic), as in the opening 90s for America. We are currently going through a growth panic from the huge successes and changes of the 90s by bringing about a recession (AND war?) just as we did under the elder Bush's reign. Of course, if the recession turns out to be a major 30s-style depression, we might not need a war too. What do you think?

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Bruce McFarling:] Now, the explanation of why generations shifted from 25ish years to18ish years is straightforward.  When the K-wave cycle stretched in the transition from personal to corporate capitalism, half a K-cycle at around 35 or 36 years became just too long for a generational paradigm to hold together ... too many in the leading edge are too far into their climb into positions of control in mass media in order to avoid provoking a reaction to their paradigm in the younger edge.  Therefore there was a phase shift, from two cycles per K-wave to four cycles per K-wave.

 OK, so how's that?  As bad as this eonic stuff, or maybe just a hair better?

[Mike:]  That's OK, but why should the K-wave "stretch"?  The ~50 year K-cycle I believe got its length from a "natural" constant, the "replication time" for the human species.  Change occurred as a result of physical replacement of older generations (and their lifeways) with newer generations.  Generational turnover hasn't slowed that much.  Even though more people live longer today, corporate and political leaders aren't really that much older today than they were in the past and young people play a very important (maybe more important) role today--in many ways they are the trendsetters.

Corporate capitalism developed in the very late 19th century and early 20th century, yet the stretch really didn't show up until after WW II.  I think the lengthening is best traced to governmental economic policies that have prevented the recurrence of panics and depression for 60 years--with the side effect of a price revolution.  All these are real depatures from the past--we have missed three panics & depressions by now.  Any plot of prices shows the price revolution.   But why this new regulated economy should pulse with 18 year frequencies is unclear--except it might have something to do with Schlesinger's political cycles.

Consider that the pre-depression 40 month inventory (Kitchen) cycle has now become a 4-year stock bull/bear market  cycle.  70% of post-1933 bear markets bottom in mid-term election years--like this one, which is very significant (>99.99%).  Here we may be seeing economics following politics in this new regulated economic world.  Schlesinger's cycles average a bit less than 18 years.  Could they be driving the K-cycle today with an 18-year time constant?  This still doesn't explain why 18 year political cycles should exist, of course.

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