[Bruce:] Now, the explanation of why generations shifted from 25ish years
to18ish years is straightforward. When the K-wave cycle stretched in the
transition from personal to corporate capitalism, half a K-cycle at around 35 or
36 years became just too long for a generational paradigm to hold together ...
too many in the leading edge are too far into their climb into positions of
control in mass media in order to avoid provoking a reaction to their
paradigm in the younger edge. Therefore there was a phase shift, from two
cycles per K-wave to four cycles per K-wave.
OK, so how's that? As bad as this eonic stuff, or maybe just a
hair better?
[Mike:] That's OK, but why should the K-wave "stretch"? The ~50
year K-cycle I believe got its length from a "natural" constant, the
"replication time" for the human species. Change occurred as a result of
physical replacement of older generations (and their lifeways) with
newer generations. Generational turnover hasn't slowed that much.
Even though more people live longer today, corporate and political leaders
aren't really that much older today than they were in the past and young people
play a very important (maybe more important) role today--in many ways they are
the trendsetters.
Corporate capitalism developed in the very late 19th century and early 20th
century, yet the stretch really didn't show up until after WW II. I
think the lengthening is best traced to governmental economic policies that have
prevented the recurrence of panics and depression for 60 years--with the side
effect of a price revolution. All these are real depatures from the
past--we have missed
three panics & depressions by
now. Any plot of
prices
shows the price revolution. But why this new regulated economy
should pulse with 18 year frequencies is unclear--except it might have something
to do with Schlesinger's political cycles.
Consider that the pre-depression 40 month inventory (Kitchen) cycle has now
become a 4-year stock bull/bear market cycle. 70% of post-1933 bear
markets bottom in mid-term election years--like this one, which is very
significant (>99.99%). Here we may be seeing economics following
politics in this new regulated economic world. Schlesinger's cycles
average a bit less than 18 years. Could they be driving the K-cycle today
with an 18-year time constant? This still doesn't explain why 18 year
political cycles should exist, of course.