< < <
Date Index
> > >
Re: WS and GF
by Mike Alexander
02 October 2002 21:50 UTC
< < <
Thread Index
> > >
[Bruce:] Now, the explanation of why generations shifted from 25ish years to18ish years is straightforward.  When the K-wave cycle stretched in the transition from personal to corporate capitalism, half a K-cycle at around 35 or 36 years became just too long for a generational paradigm to hold together ... too many in the leading edge are too far into their climb into positions of control in mass media in order to avoid provoking a reaction to their paradigm in the younger edge.  Therefore there was a phase shift, from two cycles per K-wave to four cycles per K-wave.
 
 OK, so how's that?  As bad as this eonic stuff, or maybe just a hair better?
 
[Mike:]  That's OK, but why should the K-wave "stretch"?  The ~50 year K-cycle I believe got its length from a "natural" constant, the "replication time" for the human species.  Change occurred as a result of physical replacement of older generations (and their lifeways) with newer generations.  Generational turnover hasn't slowed that much.  Even though more people live longer today, corporate and political leaders aren't really that much older today than they were in the past and young people play a very important (maybe more important) role today--in many ways they are the trendsetters.
 
Corporate capitalism developed in the very late 19th century and early 20th century, yet the stretch really didn't show up until after WW II.  I think the lengthening is best traced to governmental economic policies that have prevented the recurrence of panics and depression for 60 years--with the side effect of a price revolution.  All these are real depatures from the past--we have missed three panics & depressions by now.  Any plot of prices shows the price revolution.   But why this new regulated economy should pulse with 18 year frequencies is unclear--except it might have something to do with Schlesinger's political cycles.
 
Consider that the pre-depression 40 month inventory (Kitchen) cycle has now become a 4-year stock bull/bear market  cycle.  70% of post-1933 bear markets bottom in mid-term election years--like this one, which is very significant (>99.99%).  Here we may be seeing economics following politics in this new regulated economic world.  Schlesinger's cycles average a bit less than 18 years.  Could they be driving the K-cycle today with an 18-year time constant?  This still doesn't explain why 18 year political cycles should exist, of course.
 
< < <
Date Index
> > >
World Systems Network List Archives
at CSF
Subscribe to World Systems Network < < <
Thread Index
> > >