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questions for discussion by Boris Stremlin 25 September 2002 06:55 UTC |
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We have had a very eventful couple of weeks, which have precipitated a number of issues which should be of some interest to listmembers. I list them below in no particular order. 1) Although very slow in coming, there appears to be some Democratic oppostion to Bush's war plans forming. It is still highly probable that the Democrats will support Bush, who will continue to push the war all the way into the midterm elections in November. What are the chances that they will succeed in limiting the scope of the proposed resolution? Will it be possible for a Democrat who opposes the war as currently pursued to lead the Democratic party (I am referring to Al Gore, who became the champion of this position as of yesterday)? 2) What is the likelihood of US success in getting a favorable vote in the Security Council? THe conventional wisdom is that no permanent member will veto a US-authored resolution. However, it is possible that the eventual resolution will be very vague in its wording, which will allow the US to think that military action is authorized, while everyone else (except Britain) will think that it is not. 3) Is the UN itself in danger as a global institution. Kofi Annan says that Bush's bluster about it becoming irrelevant (unless it conforms to US wishes) is overstated, but the problem is not just its willingness to enforce resolutions directed at Iraq. The increasing US pressure for a resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq, and obvious impotence to confront Israel's disregard for Security Council resolutions is seriously eroding UN credibility. 4) Will US failure to rein in Sharon seriously undermine its war plans? The US did manage to avoid vetoing yesterday's resolution calling for Israeli withdrawal from Ramallah, but certainly the Arab countries which pushed for the resolution (it passed 14-0, with the US abstaining) are putting pressure on the Europeans. 5) Will there be long-term fallout from the tiff between the US and Germany? Some commentators suggest that Schroeder has lost credibility not only with the US, but with other EU contries as well. On the other hand, Schroeder's electoral win now makes two in a row for European social democrats, who prior to their victories in Sweden and Germany had had a string of losses. Does Schroeder's break with Bush over Iraq portent an increasingly confident Germany which will assume a more outspoken leadership within Europe and bring about the other European countries (now ruled by conservatives who are more concilliatory toward Washington), rather than the reverse? 6) Wallerstein has suggested that war against Iraq will be a protracted one. I think there may be something to this, but what are the concrete reasons? Does it have something to do with Saddam Hussein's defense plans, which will greatly increase civilian casualties and make the US more cautious? Or is it because of the likelihood of the war spilling over into other countries? -- Boris Stremlin bstremli@binghamton.edu
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