Re: Misleading Economic Indicators ...

francesco ranci" francescoranci@yahoo.com wrote:

<Interesting, though not 100% clear. Take the following sentence: "if the effects of factors that cause economic fluctuations could be ascertained before they have an effect on general economic activity..." (right at the beginning). I find it very hard to unravel... the "effect of a factor that causes an economic fluctuation" seems to be an "economic fluctuation" itself (whatever that means)... such an effect is supposed to have an effect (I thought causes had effects...) on the "general economic activity" (again, whatever that is, as opposed to a mere "economic fluctuation"...) 

I’m in agreement with you on this. The sentence is a bit ambiguous. Is he saying that his [primary] “factors” can’t be ascertained or is he saying their “effects” can’t be ascertained? In addition, he appears to be using an interchangeable model of cause and effect (where, in a given sequence, effect “B” is in turn the ‘cause’ of effect “C” ŕ “economic fluctuations”).  It’s almost as if he’s saying the “effects” [of his]”factors” are themselves operating in the capacity of intermediate (or instrumental)”causes.”  But, what specifically constitutes “factors”, what constitutes their “effects”, and what specifically constitutes “economic fluctuations?” 

His distinction between “economic fluctuations” and “general economic activity” may be referring to changes occurring on the Microeconomic level versus the Macroeconomic level. [Or in lieu of more particular information on Shostak’s part, it may be just a matter of specific economic changes (“fluctuations”) versus economic activity being discussed on a more universalized, theoretical level].  He doesn’t indicate which it is, and so we’re left to guess.

All in all, that’s my reading-of [and attempt-to-parse] Shostak’s sentence here.  Have I read it correctly or am I missing something in my analysis of what he said? ... I look forward to your comments and insights.  Best!

Luke R.

 

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