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Re: Misleading Economic Indicators ... by francesco ranci 05 June 2002 15:59 UTC |
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Interesting, though not 100% clear. Take the following sentence: "if the effects of factors that cause economic fluctuations could be ascertained before they have an effect on general economic activity..." (right at the beginning). I find it very hard to unravel... the "effect of a factor that causes an economic fluctuation" seems to be an "economic fluctuation" itself (whatever that means)... such an effect is supposed to have an effect (I thought causes had effects...) on the "general economic activity" (again, whatever that is, as opposed to a mere "economic fluctuation"... I agree, however, that the definition of "business cycle" given by Mitchell and Burns misleading, but for the reason seems to me that focuses our attention on "the aggregate economic activity of nations". It's not only "interpretation" of data that matters, I believe. Data are "constructions" in the first place. Everybody would agree that central banks monetary policy has some effect on business cycles, but thay are also effects of business cycles and political choices themselves. In any case, Shostak uses the metaphor of the "trigger", without much of an argument behind it (to justify the similarity). I agree with him on the general critical point (misleading indicators) and especially on the point that, since NBER "announces its verdicts long after peaks or throughs have been reached" its work is not "of much help to businessmen and policymakers". Furthermore, we should never forget that economic paradigms are many, and they are paradigms; i.e., basic assumptions on human behavior that need to be verified (in a diverse and changing world). I mean: the choice of how to see the world is a matter of politics. --- Luke Rondinaro <larondin@yahoo.com> wrote: > > I thought you all might like to see this article I > found (through LewRockwellcom; source, Mises.org) > and perhaps comment on it. I'm not sure I entirely > agree with its arguments, but I am interested in > getting some of your own perspectives/impressions on > the matter. > > Best! > > Luke R. > > The Misleading > Indicators by Frank Shostak > > > http://mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=958&FS=The%2BMisleading%2BIndicators > > > > --------------------------------- > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com
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