I read with interest Elson Boles article about Wallerstein and Frank's
debate about world(-)systems. It seems to me that one aspect of a
world-system that may be important for deciding membership is
rough simultaneity of social, economic, political and cultural trends. For
example, Frank hypothesizes that East Asia and Europe were part of the
same world system that extends back before 1500. Wallerstein
disagrees. Suppose we were to compare Kondratiev (and other) cycles
for East Asia and Europe from the present extending backward. If
we see rough alignment today, but divergence at some time in the past, we might
be able to mark the time of divergence as when the two world-systems split off
from each other. If such a split was noted just a few centuries ago,
this could be taken as support of the Wallerstein view. On the other
hand, if the two cycles remain aligned going back well before 1500, this might
support the Frank view.
Now a particularly annoying problem with this is that Kondratiev
cycles are devilishly hard to pin down. I've just published a book on
Kondratiev cycles in which I have developed some new methods for identifying the
cycles which may be of interest to list members.
If so I can discuss them at greater length in subsequent posts.
Thanks
Mike Alexander, author of
Stock Cycles: Why stocks won't beat
money markets over the next 20 years and