Re: estimating fatalities in the war in Afghanistan

An article in Libération ten days ago estimated civilian deaths due to
bombing in Kabul at about 30, significantly lower than the 800 or so
claimed by the Taliban at one point.
Fatalities among combatants, in particular in the recent bombing of
Kandahar, would appear to have been much higher.

Harry Forster


At 10:34 08/12/01 -0600, you wrote:

I appreciate the issues raised by Gert. There are problems with the details, of course, because the Iraqi Army was large and its forces were concentrated. So the numbers of Taliban soldiers killed might not be so great.  But the civilian casualties....how to estimate them? A child cannot get medical care, or food is so scarce that her immune system is weakened, and then dies because the family was made homeless by the bombing. And many more will die because of that. (Just as the casualties in Serbia should include those who needlessly died/die because the bridges and roads were destroyed by NATO bombing......capitalism somehow has a way of conveniently ignoring the "collateral damage.)
 
It is an important question that should be pursued.
 
 
Alan Spector
 
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----- Original Message -----

From: g kohler

To: wsn

Sent: Saturday, December 08, 2001 9:41 AM

Subject: estimating fatalities in the war in Afghanistan

During the US war in Vietnam "body counts" were a daily media routine. In contrast, the war in Afghanistan is not reported in this fashion. How many people - military, paramilitary, civilian - have died in the war in Afghanistan during the first two months - Oct 7 - Dec 7, 2001 (fall of Kandahar)?

 

One way to estimate this figure is by comparison with the Gulf war against Iraq of the 1990s. The duration and ferocity of the wars against Iraq and against the Taliban appear to be quite similar. Furthermore the armaments and techniques of warfare are comparable - tanks, machine guns (and some air planes at the beginning of the war) on the Taliban or Iraq side and superior massive high-tech airpower on the American and alliance side, combined with ground forces.

 

Result of this estimate, based on the similarity of the two wars = 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities. If this estimate is dependable, then the 3,900 American and non-American citizens who were killed on 11 Sept 2001 (in New York, Pentagon - according to the most recent casualty report) have been avenged by the death of 100,000 to 200,000 Afghanis, less one American CIA agent. Considering the number of enemy soldiers who have been found killed with their hands tied behind their backs, the conduct of the war by the Coalition Against Terror has been very efficient up to now, but corresponds in no way to the criteria of a just war - (a) proportionality, (b) no civilian casualties, (c) no extermination of POWs. As a matter of observation, counter-terrorist warfare (=counterinsurgency) never complies with the criteria of just war. Examples are many - French and American wars in Vietnam and Indochina, French war against Algerian independence 1954-62, South African Whites against South African Blacks 1961-1990, others. The above estimate is tentative and preliminary, also bearing in mind that the war continues and that the commander in chief predicted a "long war".

 

Gert Kohler