I appreciate the issues raised by Gert. There are problems with the
details, of course, because the Iraqi Army was large and its forces were
concentrated. So the numbers of Taliban soldiers killed might not be so
great. But the civilian casualties....how to estimate them? A child cannot
get medical care, or food is so scarce that her immune system is weakened, and
then dies because the family was made homeless by the bombing. And many more
will die because of that. (Just as the casualties in Serbia should include those
who needlessly died/die because the bridges and roads were destroyed by NATO
bombing......capitalism somehow has a way of conveniently ignoring the
"collateral damage.)
It is an important question that should be pursued.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, December 08, 2001 9:41
AM
Subject: estimating fatalities in the war
in Afghanistan
During the US war in Vietnam "body counts" were a
daily media routine. In contrast, the war in Afghanistan is not reported in
this fashion. How many people - military, paramilitary, civilian - have died
in the war in Afghanistan during the first two months - Oct 7 - Dec 7, 2001
(fall of Kandahar)?
One way to estimate this figure is by comparison
with the Gulf war against Iraq of the 1990s. The duration and ferocity of the
wars against Iraq and against the Taliban appear to be quite similar.
Furthermore the armaments and techniques of warfare are comparable
- tanks, machine guns (and some air planes at the beginning of the war)
on the Taliban or Iraq side and superior massive high-tech airpower on the
American and alliance side, combined with ground
forces.
Result of this estimate, based on the similarity
of the two wars = 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities. If this estimate is
dependable, then the 3,900 American and non-American citizens who were killed
on 11 Sept 2001 (in New York, Pentagon - according to the most recent casualty
report) have been avenged by the death of 100,000 to 200,000 Afghanis,
less one American CIA agent. Considering the number of enemy soldiers who have
been found killed with their hands tied behind their backs, the conduct of
the war by the Coalition Against Terror has been very efficient up to
now, but corresponds in no way to the criteria of a just war - (a)
proportionality, (b) no civilian casualties, (c) no extermination
of POWs. As a matter of observation, counter-terrorist warfare
(=counterinsurgency) never complies with the criteria of just war.
Examples are many - French and American wars in Vietnam and Indochina, French
war against Algerian independence 1954-62, South African Whites against South
African Blacks 1961-1990, others. The above estimate is tentative and
preliminary, also bearing in mind that the war continues and that the
commander in chief predicted a "long war".
Gert Kohler