|
Dear fellow members,
On reading the current torrent flow of postings
about the "rise of China" and WST, I was quite interested on the subject. I hope
you will have a few comments I wish to make. I'm sorry, but I couldn't look up
so far any empirical/quantitative data to support my cooments. Still, here they
are:
- First of all, to point out that this is merely an
intellectual exercise, for none can predict with any degree of certainty using
an instrument (WST) explicitly not designed for such a purpose. WST is
primarily a methodology developed to analyse "historical capitalism and the
capitalist civilization" (Wallerstein, 1983). It is a like a pair of
binnoculars: a wonderful instrument to magnify and dissect some realities
(i.e. the past and present); creating only optical illusions when
misused (i.e. focusing on future events).
- Most of the analysis so far posted focus primarily
on countries, namely, on the Nation-state we know as the Popular Republic of
China. I guess this is a misconception that takes its toll on the accuracy of
results. FIRST, because World-systems Theory, as far as I can understand it,
was developed with the explicit purpose of overcoming the
centrality of the national units. It should be applied to regions, or areas
instead... SECOND, because China is not an homogenous unit in
itself - it has areas which are manifestly peripheral, some which are
semi-peripheral, and some that are arguably near core status, much
like a sub-system within the structure of the world-system. So, treating it as
a single and undifferentiated unit does not strike me as the correct
methodology.
- Then, there is the problem of development, as
Frank theorized it. Clearly, China is pretty much on the same position as most
of South America, in that it is still exploited by core regions, who
prevent it from appropriating internally-generated surplus. (Actually, and
once again, this pattern is mirrored within China - its most advanced regions
exploit its less advanced ones.) So, thus integrated as a (semi?)peripheral
country in the world economic structure, and suffering from blatant
underdevelopment - see latest UN figures - it seems highly questionable to me
that this country/area will move to the core anytime soon.
This is not to deny the rise of China within the
world system: one cannot remain indiffernent to its advances in economic
performance (at least in some areas), to its crescent military power, to its
demographic importance as one of the biggest markets and labour-pools in the
world, or even to its tendentially hegemonic traditions in the
region.
Some authors - notably Frank and esp.Arrighi - have
for a while now theorized about a trend of the core to move steadily westwards.
In the current phase of global transition, the core is said to be moving
westward again, thus leaving the euro-atlantic area toward the Pacific rim.
(Someone mentioned Castells' 3 vols. master-piece, "The Information Age"... He
makes quite a conivincing analysis of this trend). If this is indeed so, then
China will have a chance to move up to Core status when the world
system moves into another Kondrattief A phase. But, again, this is not a
swift process, and I do not believe we can discern its symptoms yet, not in the
Chinese case anyway.
Quid juris?
|