FW: urgent question (and more)

Regarding Kemp, I think he is off the mark because core capital, especially
that of the US, had been de-industrializing since the 1950s.   I don't think
there is a "classic" form of recovery that is, by Kemp's implication,
"internal."  As for the seventies recession, it hasn't ended, and regarding
its relation to deindustrialization, it is as though Kemp as the tail
wagging the dog.  The global down turn intensified the need for core capital
to move abroad, and prior deindustrialization, especially product-cycle
changes in East Asia, contributed to make that possible.

Regarding the East Asian crisis, it may be seen as part of the ongoing
downturn or B-phase.  It can be compared to the 70's downturns, as Soros
implies, as a fulfillment of the core de-industrialization process.  But I
also happen to believe that there are other key interstate changes occurring
during the 1970-present era, including the proliferation of the mafioso-like
tactics pursued by the US to preserve its hegemony (the effect of which,
given the structural transformations of the world-economy since 1945, acts
like a lever toward the formation of a world-empire -- see Negri and Hardt,
2000).  This would include, besides instigating wars (Bosnia, Gulf) and cold
war escalation that have the same effect, the Structural Adjustment
Policies, which, in furthering de-industrialization, have likewise caused
economic-financial chaos in those recipient "industrializing" (East Asia) or
"de-industrializing" (Russia) semi-peripheries which in turn has resulted in
massive capital flows back to the safe shores of US markets, inflating US
share prices, and increasing the US take of global capital before being sent
abroad again back into those recipient areas to purchase goods at
consequently greatly deflated prices.

Soros may correctly judge that the limits to those capital flows have been
reached for a time.  Which is why he supposes things must get worse before
they get better, i.e. there must be more deflationary chaos in the (semi)
periphery so core capital can go back to purchase (invest) at lower prices.
If so, he seems to suggest that de-industrialization and the programs of its
promotion, are nearing the apex of their maximum effect (at least in the
short to run of 5-10 years).  And it may be that we are in a classic 5-year
downturn at the end of this process with recovery coming in, say, 2004.  If
Wallerstein is accurate, the following recovery would mark the start of a
25-30 year upswing not seen since the 1945-70 period.

Elson E. Boles
Assistant Professor, Historical Sociology
University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma
2108 S. 19th St.
Chickasha, OK 73018

-----Original Message-----
From: wsn-owner@csf.colorado.edu [mailto:wsn-owner@csf.colorado.edu]On
Behalf Of Mine Aysen Doyran
Sent: Friday, January 05, 2001 9:17 AM
To: wsn@csf.colorado.edu; ipe@csf.colorado.edu
Subject: urgent question



hi folks,
I am reading Tom Kemp's _The Climax of  Capitalism: The US Economy in the
20th century_. He says that one of the major causes of the world economic
crisis in the 1970s was inflationary pressures on dollar. Then he continues
by saying that "although  bearing a family resemblance of previous
recessions , that of 1974-5, differed  from them in one salient aspect:
there was no deflation; instead the dollar continued to lose purchasing
power and prices continued to rise. the clearing of ground for recovery by a
downward revaluation of assets and the lowering of costs, thus restoring the
profitability of capital, did not happen in the classical manner. What did
happen from about this time was that plants  that proved unprofitable in the
recession did not re-open in the boom:de-insdustrialization had begun. In
response to the declining rate of profit at home, corporations sought higher
profits by transferring manufacturing facilities to low wage countries".
(p.184).
What the cause of  _asian crisis_ compared to above scenario? inflation or
deflation problem?
   a ny help greatly appreciated!!!
  bye
  Mine
  Mine Aysen Doyran
PhD Student
Department of Political Science
SUNY at Albany
Nelson A. Rockefeller College
135 Western Ave.; Milne 102
Albany, NY 12222
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