Re: urgent question (and more)

Elson, thanks very much for this.. you got me!

bye

Mine

"Boles (office)" wrote:

> Regarding Kemp, I think he is off the mark because core capital, especially
> that of the US, had been de-industrializing since the 1950s.   I don't think
> there is a "classic" form of recovery that is, by Kemp's implication,
> "internal."  As for the seventies recession, it hasn't ended, and regarding
> its relation to deindustrialization, it is as though Kemp as the tail
> wagging the dog.  The global down turn intensified the need for core capital
> to move abroad, and prior deindustrialization, especially product-cycle
> changes in East Asia, contributed to make that possible.
>
> Regarding the East Asian crisis, it may be seen as part of the ongoing
> downturn or B-phase.  It can be compared to the 70's downturns, as Soros
> implies, as a fulfillment of the core de-industrialization process.  But I
> also happen to believe that there are other key interstate changes occurring
> during the 1970-present era, including the proliferation of the mafioso-like
> tactics pursued by the US to preserve its hegemony (the effect of which,
> given the structural transformations of the world-economy since 1945, acts
> like a lever toward the formation of a world-empire -- see Negri and Hardt,
> 2000).  This would include, besides instigating wars (Bosnia, Gulf) and cold
> war escalation that have the same effect, the Structural Adjustment
> Policies, which, in furthering de-industrialization, have likewise caused
> economic-financial chaos in those recipient "industrializing" (East Asia) or
> "de-industrializing" (Russia) semi-peripheries which in turn has resulted in
> massive capital flows back to the safe shores of US markets, inflating US
> share prices, and increasing the US take of global capital before being sent
> abroad again back into those recipient areas to purchase goods at
> consequently greatly deflated prices.
>
> Soros may correctly judge that the limits to those capital flows have been
> reached for a time.  Which is why he supposes things must get worse before
> they get better, i.e. there must be more deflationary chaos in the (semi)
> periphery so core capital can go back to purchase (invest) at lower prices.
> If so, he seems to suggest that de-industrialization and the programs of its
> promotion, are nearing the apex of their maximum effect (at least in the
> short to run of 5-10 years).  And it may be that we are in a classic 5-year
> downturn at the end of this process with recovery coming in, say, 2004.  If
> Wallerstein is accurate, the following recovery would mark the start of a
> 25-30 year upswing not seen since the 1945-70 period.
>
> Elson E. Boles
> Assistant Professor, Historical Sociology
> University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma
> 2108 S. 19th St.
> Chickasha, OK 73018
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: wsn-owner@csf.colorado.edu [mailto:wsn-owner@csf.colorado.edu]On
> Behalf Of Mine Aysen Doyran
> Sent: Friday, January 05, 2001 9:17 AM
> To: wsn@csf.colorado.edu; ipe@csf.colorado.edu
> Subject: urgent question
>
> hi folks,
> I am reading Tom Kemp's _The Climax of  Capitalism: The US Economy in the
> 20th century_. He says that one of the major causes of the world economic
> crisis in the 1970s was inflationary pressures on dollar. Then he continues
> by saying that "although  bearing a family resemblance of previous
> recessions , that of 1974-5, differed  from them in one salient aspect:
> there was no deflation; instead the dollar continued to lose purchasing
> power and prices continued to rise. the clearing of ground for recovery by a
> downward revaluation of assets and the lowering of costs, thus restoring the
> profitability of capital, did not happen in the classical manner. What did
> happen from about this time was that plants  that proved unprofitable in the
> recession did not re-open in the boom:de-insdustrialization had begun. In
> response to the declining rate of profit at home, corporations sought higher
> profits by transferring manufacturing facilities to low wage countries".
> (p.184).
> What the cause of  _asian crisis_ compared to above scenario? inflation or
> deflation problem?
>    a ny help greatly appreciated!!!
>   bye
>   Mine
>   Mine Aysen Doyran
> PhD Student
> Department of Political Science
> SUNY at Albany
> Nelson A. Rockefeller College
> 135 Western Ave.; Milne 102
> Albany, NY 12222
>   Shop Safely Online Without a Credit Card http://www.rocketcash.com

--

Mine Aysen Doyran
PhD Student
Department of Political Science
SUNY at Albany
Nelson A. Rockefeller College
135 Western Ave.; Milne 102
Albany, NY 12222



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