Re: centrist victory in Russia

On Tue, 21 Dec 1999, Steve Rosenthal wrote:

> In fact, it is
> interesting that the US news media have  recently decided to
> discard the terms "democratic" and "reformers" and have began to use
> the term "centrist" to refer to the ruling Yeltsin-Putin forces and their
> financial backers.

Interesting point.

> Boris Stremlin also wrote:
> 
> "It seems like Russia is in a similar situation as in the 20's, when
> the Stalinist center made the necessary alliances to destroy its more
> principled opposition on both sides as it consolidated absolute
> power."
> 
> I disagree.  Stalin sought to preserve socialism against the 
> Trotsky/Bukharin/Zinoviev blocs who were advocating strategies that 
> would lead to the restoration of capitalism in the Soviet Union.  
> Although Stalin made many mistakes, he represented not the "center" 
> but the left at that time.
> 
> In contrast, the "centrist" Yeltsin/Putin forces, as well as those to 
> their right and those to their left (i.e., the "Communist" Party) are 
> today all pro-capitalist and pro-imperialist parties.
> 
> The success of the Russian government in mobilizing popular support 
> for the Chechen war is--to use a historical analogy that is, of 
> course, imperfect--a signal that the Weimar period is ending in 
> Russia, and some form of "national socialism" or "national communism' 
> (that is, fascism) lies ahead.

We disagree substantially on Stalin and his rivals' propensity to "restore
capitalism" (if it neded to be "restored" at all), but as these issues
have lost relevance I am not interested in debating the point, especially
since we seem in basic agreement on the trajectory of Russia at the end of
the millenium.  

The questions that interest me are more pragmatic in character, namely:

1) is it true that given the outcome of the election the free-market
agenda will be ressurrected?

2) is it true that given the outcome of the election the Communists have
been effectively sidelined (alternatively, what are the prospects of a
Communist/Fatherland/Yabloko alliance?)

3) How stable is the "centrist" alliance likely to prove in the coming
months, and which element is likeliest to be jettisoned first by Yeltsin?  

-- 
Boris Stremlin
bc70219@binghamton.edu

PS - I won't be replying to any responses for a while as I'll be away from
my computer, so here's wishing all WSNers a happy non-denominational
holiday!