(Fwd) Weekly Analysis November 29, 1999

To PSN and WSN:

Stratfor (a strategic intelligence service for international
corporations, especially oil companies) makes some important points
about the WTO and world capitalism in their current weekly summary. 
They point out that the ruling classes of the three main blocs, North
America, Europe, and Asia, cannot agree on anything, that the WTO is
a moribund organization, and that the WTO meeting will surely be a
flop 

They point out that the three blocs are in very different economic 
circumstances, and that whatever benefits one bloc comes at the 
expense of the others.  They conclude that this situation will last 
for a generation, and that it will lead to international conflict, 
(which probably means war, perhaps world war).

Many leftist critics of the WTO who are protesting this week in
Seattle are making good criticisms of the WTO and the harm it does
to workers, farmers, and to the environment.  However, many
critics have an incorrect estimate of the WTO.  They think it is 
creating a unified globalized capitalism that is usurping national 
sovereignty.  There are many things wrong with this estimate.

First, we should not defend national sovereignty.  As Marx wrote a 
long time ago, working people have no country and should therefore 
not defend national sovereignty.  To defend national sovereignty 
against the WTO is to form an implicit ideological alliance with the 
Pat Buchanans and their nationalist, xenophobic counterparts 
elsewhere in the world.

Second, although the U.S. as the lone "superpower" surely would like
to bring the entire world into its globalized free trade empire, it
cannot do so.  Its European and Asian competitors will not go along.
They have disagreements and conflicting interests everywhere you
look.  Even where they were not long ago united in war, they are now
divided.  Divided on whether to rebuild bridges in Serbia across the
Danube.  Divided on whether to lift sanctions against Iraq and
prohibitions against new oil deals with Iran.  

Thus, the people of the world must be warned not that all capitalists 
of the world will unite in a single global elite.  They must be 
warned that the capitalists of the world will "in a generation" be so 
irreconcilably at each other's throats that there is likely to be a 
third world war for redivision of the world among the leading 
imperialist powers (as Lenin put it).

As the debate rages on WSN about whether a putative world party 
should be revolutionary or reformist, pacifist or violent, this long 
term scenario set forth by Stratfor should be taken into account.

The full analysis is available at Stratfor.com.  It is worth reading. 

Steve Rosenthal
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
------- Forwarded Message Follows -------
Date:          Sun, 28 Nov 1999 21:30:02 -0600 (EST)
From:          "alert@stratfor.com" <alert@stratfor.com>
Subject:       Weekly Analysis November 29, 1999

STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - November 29, 1999

The WTO and the De-synchronization of the Global Economy

Summary:

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is meeting in Seattle this week.
The participants are so divided that they could not even develop a
formal agenda for the meetings. While everyone is focused on
China's admission, the fact is that the WTO is moribund, only a few
years after its creation. Its failure is rooted in the fundamental
reality of today's global economy: de-synchronization of regions of
roughly equal bulk. Ever since the Asian meltdown, the world's
economic regions have been completely out of synch. Indeed,
individual nations within regions are out of synch. That means that
the creation of integrated economic policies is impossible. What
helps one region hurts others. Thus, organizations like the WTO
cannot function. Instead, regional institutions are emerging. They
too, face conflict among constituent nations, but are more likely
to create coherent and beneficial policies for their regions. This
points to increased tension among and within regions. Such de-
synchronization has been seen in the past. It is, over the course
of a generation, a warning of the potential for serious
international conflict.
__________________________________________________

STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: info@stratfor.com
___________________________________________________