There is the danger that Indonesia will collapse and
fragment.
It is this danger and its adverse effects on Australia and
New Zealand both in the context of its commercial and security interests.
Australia's new and more active strategy entailing its leading a force into East
Timor is aimed at seeking to assist, however modestly, in preventing the
collapse of Indonesia from occurring. If Indonesia collapses it will fragment in
such a way that the Indonesian armed forces will break into a variety of
regional military worlordships each in combat with each other.
The principal reason that Australia has shifted away from
splendid isolation and taken its armed forces into East Timor is danger of
Indonesia collapsing. The interests of the East Timorese masses has little to do
with their actions.
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