Re: R.Collins on Kosovo

Ten or 15 years ago yours truly published a 'modest proposal'
to re-establish the Austro Hungarian Empire as the LEAST BAD
solution to todays and tomorrows problems and the Randall-Georgi
discussion. The latest Hapsburg then wanted to run for president of
Hungary, for starters.... too bad! meaning everything since has been MUCH 
worse than my 'solution' would have been.
gunder frank

On Tue, 30
Mar 1999, Georgi M. Derluguian wrote:

> Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 17:23:16 -0500
> From: "Georgi M. Derluguian" <gderlug@nwu.edu>
> To: WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK <wsn@csf.colorado.edu>
> Subject: R.Collins on  Kosovo
> 
> I am afarid that Randall Collins makes quite wrong conclusions from his
> superbly correct general theoretical analysis. Just two points:
> 
> >NATO/US commitment of resources will remain moderate. Since moderate
> >conflicts can go on longer than severe conflicts, it seems likely that the
> >local ethnic violence in Kosovo will continue for quite some time.
> 
> The events of the last couple days (which were absolutely predictable)
> indicate that the conflict in Kosovo might be over very soon with the
> Albanian population fleeing en masse. Serbia will thus acquire a
> symbolically prized, militarily controlled, and economically totally
> undesireable territory (much like the three districts of Azerbaijan seized
> by Armenians in 1992-93 in their effort to prevent further attacks on
> Nagorno Karabagh).
> Serbia will then try to re-populate Kosovo with ethnic Serbs but there will
> be very few willing settlers. After all, Albanians are so far a majority in
> Kosovo precisely because since 1945 most Serbs moved from this arid
> provincial backwater to belgrade and beyond, leaving their villages to the
> population of much lower status, namely, Albanians. (In another parallel to
> Karabagh and Armenia, this is how most historically Armenian villages have
> become predominantly Azeri since 1945 -- vertical, urban-oriented mobility
> by the better endowed Armenians left the undesirable countryside to the
> "backward"  Muslim mountaineers).
> In the medium-run Kosovo will likely remain a new military frontier zone,
> mostly empty.
> 
> The West would eventually regain "realist" logic in international affairs
> and try to prevent the migration of Albanian refugees to Western Europe
> (what was the main fear and the cause of the current bombing campaign).
> This can be done by installing regimes of de-facto occupation in the
> neighboring countries (Macedonia, Albania) and trying to sedentarize the
> Kosovars in the adjacent territories. It would be crucial to the Western
> interest to abort the formation of a separate kosovar identity and a case
> of irredenta, but I doubt that this would be preventable.
> 
> The best long-term hope for the small Balkan states would be if they
> >eventually could become part of the European Union, which would give a new
> >source of identification and eliminate the ethnic violence.
> ALAS, THIS WOULD HAVE SOLVED THE PROBLEM, BUT THIS IS EXACTLY THE
> UNLIKELIEST POSSIBILITY.
> Yours,
> Georgii
> 
> Georgi M. Derluguian
> Assistant Professor
> Department of Sociology
> Northwestern University
> 1812 Chicago Avenue
> Evanston, Illinois 60208-1330
> (847) 491-2741 (rabota)
> 
> 
> 


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                   ANDRE GUNDER FRANK
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My Home Page is at:       http://www.whc.neu.edu/gunder.html
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