R.Collins on Kosovo

I am afarid that Randall Collins makes quite wrong conclusions from his
superbly correct general theoretical analysis. Just two points:

>NATO/US commitment of resources will remain moderate. Since moderate
>conflicts can go on longer than severe conflicts, it seems likely that the
>local ethnic violence in Kosovo will continue for quite some time.

The events of the last couple days (which were absolutely predictable)
indicate that the conflict in Kosovo might be over very soon with the
Albanian population fleeing en masse. Serbia will thus acquire a
symbolically prized, militarily controlled, and economically totally
undesireable territory (much like the three districts of Azerbaijan seized
by Armenians in 1992-93 in their effort to prevent further attacks on
Nagorno Karabagh).
Serbia will then try to re-populate Kosovo with ethnic Serbs but there will
be very few willing settlers. After all, Albanians are so far a majority in
Kosovo precisely because since 1945 most Serbs moved from this arid
provincial backwater to belgrade and beyond, leaving their villages to the
population of much lower status, namely, Albanians. (In another parallel to
Karabagh and Armenia, this is how most historically Armenian villages have
become predominantly Azeri since 1945 -- vertical, urban-oriented mobility
by the better endowed Armenians left the undesirable countryside to the
"backward"  Muslim mountaineers).
In the medium-run Kosovo will likely remain a new military frontier zone,
mostly empty.

The West would eventually regain "realist" logic in international affairs
and try to prevent the migration of Albanian refugees to Western Europe
(what was the main fear and the cause of the current bombing campaign).
This can be done by installing regimes of de-facto occupation in the
neighboring countries (Macedonia, Albania) and trying to sedentarize the
Kosovars in the adjacent territories. It would be crucial to the Western
interest to abort the formation of a separate kosovar identity and a case
of irredenta, but I doubt that this would be preventable.

The best long-term hope for the small Balkan states would be if they
>eventually could become part of the European Union, which would give a new
>source of identification and eliminate the ethnic violence.
ALAS, THIS WOULD HAVE SOLVED THE PROBLEM, BUT THIS IS EXACTLY THE
UNLIKELIEST POSSIBILITY.
Yours,
Georgii

Georgi M. Derluguian
Assistant Professor
Department of Sociology
Northwestern University
1812 Chicago Avenue
Evanston, Illinois 60208-1330
(847) 491-2741 (rabota)