(Fwd) R.Collins on Kosovo

From: Randall Collins

Dear Nikolai:

The Kosovo events follow the more unpleasant patterns of conflict theory.
In the immediate short run, we see the typical dynamic of escalation and
counterescalation. The NATO air strikes, designed to put on pressure for
accepting the peace plan, have the effect of increasing solidarity among
the Serbs. They also increase emotional polarization and intensify the
local conflict in Kosovo between Serbs and Albanians. Thus the level of
violent atrocities, which continues an earlier history of reciprocal
violence and revenge, is escalated to a new level.

The spiral of escalation and counterescalation could hypothetically
continue upwards for some time. The height of this spiral depends on how
much material and human resources both sides have to put into the conflict.
The NATO leaders, and especially the US political leaders, do not want to
become involved in a lengthy ground conflict with its probability of higher
casualities to their troops, but prefer to conduct the war from the air.
This is militarily only moderately effective, and it also means that
NATO/US commitment of resources will remain moderate. Since moderate
conflicts can go on longer than severe conflicts, it seems likely that the
local ethnic violence in Kosovo will continue for quite some time.

In the background is the weakness of the Yugoslav state, which lost its
position in the world geopolitical system with the collapse of the
East/West confrontation of power blocs; Yugoslavia had an honorable
position as the leading neutral mediator between the blocs, and this had
strengthened state solidarity. With the disappearance of this geopolitical
position, the dynamic took hold in which weakening states lose solidarity
and undergo ethnic separatism. Of course, in the long run, the creation of
a large number of small weak states does not elevate their national
prestige, and eventually there is a desire for new alliances and
identities. (For example the desire for ex-Warsaw Pact states to join
NATO.) The best long-term hope for the small Balkan states would be if they
eventually could become part of the European Union, which would give a new
source of identification and eliminate the ethnic violence.

Randall Collins
University of Pennsylvania
Sociology Department
3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia PA 19104-6299
FAX 215-573-2081