Russia and NATO-Kosovo

> Nevertheless, Professor Grimes' fears about a direct clash between Western
> and Russian forces as a result of the ascension of Mr. Zyuganov to the
> Russian presidency are overdrawn.
Quite the opposite: ascension of the left on the 1999
parliamentary elections and Zuyganov to presidency is
evaluated as an increasingly possible outcome.

> Would the Russians really be willing to send their much-degraded armed forces on a military excursion that would
> almost certainly result in their humiliation?  Recall that the Russians,
> with their memory of the unhappy fate of Nicholas II and the Kerensky
> government, are only too well aware of the potential domestic political
> consequences of disastrous foreign military adventures.
The internal consequences may be disastrous even without external
military involvement. Loosing Russia to communists may be another
big defeat to the US foreign policy in next few years.

> I'm more concerned about other changes in the military situation in the
> former Yugoslavia and elsewhere.  For example, I'm concerned that the
> Russians might respond by relocating missiles to Belarus (a possibility
> mentioned in the press in recent days) or by increased efforts to arm the
> Serbs.
These possibilities have not been denied, but are now less
articulated. In an TV interview couple hours ago Prime Minister
Primakov mentioned that it would depend on further situation
development. Of course he insisted bombings should be stopped.

> *international community* has not used military force in other cases in the
> recommending.  It may be the case that some in the *international community*
The use of term *international community* in the western rhetoric is
misleading. Until there hasn't been a session of UN Security
Council, it's NATO's, not *international community's* opinion.

Yours,
Yevgeniy Pogrebnyak.


E-mail: mailto:yevgeniy@iname.com
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