>Comments: Authenticated sender is <Alf_H@pmail.etn.lu.se>
>From: Alf.Hornborg@etn.lu.se
>To: scc1@axe.humboldt.edu
>Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 14:32:01 +0000
>Subject: Please forward!
>Reply-To: Alf.Hornborg@humecol.lu.se
>Priority: normal
>
>DEAR SING,
>PLEASE FORWARD THIS TO THE WHOLE WORLD SYSTEMS
>NETWORK. I THINK IT WILL INTEREST THEM.
>BEST WISHES,
>ALF
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>From: Sviatoslav Zabelin
>Goldman Environmental Prize winner-93
>Co-chairman of the Council of
>Socio-Ecological Union, International
>E-mail: svet@glasnet.ru
>P.O.Box 211 Moscow 121019 Russia
>
>To: The World Community
>Subject: Implications of the "Business-As-Usual" Scenario.
> A Call to Action.
>
>Date: April 7, 1998
>
>
>Dear Friends:
> The reason for this open letter is both very simple and very
>complex. On one hand, economic and environmental indicators show that
>we are at a critical threshold within the global economic and social
>system . On the other hand, the majority of the population, from the
>heads of government to the bottom of society cannot accept the idea
>that the usual order will change crucially --and it will probably
>happen in the very near future.
>
> I believe the foundation for this open letter is absolutely
>pragmatic and realistic, without mystical interpretation. My intent is
>not to frighten anyone but simply to transmit the facts, as I see
>them, so that we humans can make the correct, life-giving decisions.
>
> I
> In 1972 Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Renders and
>William Behrens III prepared the report "Limits to Growth" for The
>Club of Rome's project, The Predicament of Mankind. The computer
>projections made by their World3 model showed that under the "business
>as usual" scenario the economic growth of the world economic system
>will stop and the system will collapse before 2020.
>
> In their book "Beyond the Limits" published in 1992 they repeated
>their calculations and confirmed that no significant changes occured
>during the past 20 years and the development of the world economy is
>still coinciding with the computer projections stated in "Limits to
>Growth".
>
> The financial crisis of South-East Asia in 1997, a 40% drop of
>oil prices, and other indicators, show that the real growth in
>production on the planet is slowing drastically. And what is really
>booming are prices of stock shares.
>
> From my point of view we will face the predicted fall of the
>global economy not in 2020 but much earlier, possibly at any moment.
>The fall of the Berlin wall, the end of apartheid in South Africa, and
>the break-up of the USSR, are good reminders of how quickly and
>unpredictably social change can happen.
>
> Lester Brown, head of the World Watch Institute, stated that "the
>global economy as now structured cannot continue to expand much longer
>if the ecosystem on which it depends continues to deteriorate at the
>current rate" He is deeply concerned that a poor grain harvest, most
>notably in China, is the kind of spark that ignites an economic
>forestfire with lethal repercussions.
>
> A crisis of this magnitude, will lead not only to a catastrophic
>decrease of industrial production, not only to a catastrophic decrease
>of agricultural production but also to a catastrophic decrease in
>world population -- and the computer model World3 shows this quite
>clearly.
>
> My first recommendation to those who would prefer not to "wait
>and see " but instead, to act - is to reread the books of D.&D.Meadows
>and Co, and compare their findings with your own observations.
>
> II
> A global catastrophe, resulting from going beyond the limits to
>growth, is not a fantasy. Please study the smaller, but highly
>illustrative, crisis that happened with the Soviet Union as a limited
>economic system in the 1980's in order to understand what lies ahead
>if we do not change our ways.
>
> The description of crisis mechanisms and consequences from
>"Limits to Growth" coincided with the reality of the Soviet and
>post-Soviet society (despite the fact that the World3 model was made
>for a market economy).
>
> This crisis led not only to a 10-year decline of industrial
>activity, not only to the collapse of science, medicine, education,
>not only to enormous unemployment, not only to hundreds of thousands
>of victims in civil wars, but to a significant decrease of population
>also (approximately 1,000,000 per year in the total Russian
>populationof approximately 150,000,000).
>
> My second recommendation is to look at the crisis of USSR not
>from the point of view as a victory of capitalism over communism but
>to look at the deeper lesson to be learned. The demise of communism
>can be seen as a limits-to-growth crisis. Come see the Russian
>province for yourselves to learn what a crisis can do to a developed
>country which launched the first man to the Cosmos.
>
> III
> Despite massive amounts of evidence, most decision makers,
>businessmen and NGO activists, spiritual leaders and artists--together
>with the majority of the world population-- behave like we have
>centuries to solve systemic problems. And it is understandable, the
>human mind wants to avoid such painful information. Key crew members
>on the ship Titanic failed to heed the warnings given to them. The
>ship was considered "unsinkable" and speed and profits were the
>priorities. However... WE can change course. We are flexible thinking
>human beings who can act responsibly and save ourselves, our children,
>and the living beings of Mother Earth.
>
> IY
> It seems quite clear what preventative medicine is needed, both
>generally and specifically. Lester R. Brown and Jennifer Mitchell's
>concluded the "State of the World - 1998" by saying "we know what an
>environmentally sustainable economy would look like, and we have the
>technologies needed to build such an economy".
>
>I agree with them and...
> We humans need to urgently realize that we are passengers on one
>small ship: Planet Earth.
> We need urgent cooperation between countries, between sectors,
>between NGOs, between peoples, etc
> We need disarmament immediatedly.
> We need an exponential decrease of resource exploitation.
> We need to respect life, the life of each woman/man and each
>animal/plant.
> We need self-limitation in consumption (firstly in the rich
>countries).
> And...
> We humans can establish urgent binding international agreements.
> We can increase taxes on environmentally destructive activities.
> We can stop wilderness degradation.
> Etc.
>
> Y
> It is clear that the existing state machine cannot respond.
> It is clear that pressuring this machine is simply ineffective.
> It is clear that no one sector alone (governments, business, NGO)
>can solve the problems that we face.
>
> YI
> I am a leader of one of the biggest and well-known international
>NGO networks, and I am scientist.
> I am a citizen of the former USSR & Russia and I know how to live
>in a "limits-to-growth-crisis".
> I've met leaders of many other organizations and I respect their
>efforts very much. But I know the limits of methods and means that we
>have used in the past, what we are still using to this day.
> I feel certain that we simply have no time to wait. We do not
>have years to make critical decisions, only months, and I will repeat
>this sense of urgency a thousand times if it will help.
>
> YII
> I am sure that only a coalition of courageous peoples from
>different sectors, from different countries can give humanity a chance
>not to return to the Dark Ages with its murders, wars and plagues.
>
> I cannot avert, or lessen, this crisis alone.
> I ask you to distribute my message by any means that you have.
> I ask you to send this message to the businessmen, policy makers,
>and leaders that you trust.
> The positive future of Humanity and Life on Earth is in our
>hands.
> We must act together!
> I am at your service.
>
> What follows is a description of what is likely to happen to the
>developed world if the current trends are not radically altered.
> Our choice is to wait or to act.
>
> ***
>
> Anticipated Crisis Events 1998 - 2003 (2010).
>
> This text is prepared using the results of investigations of Club
>of Rome's experts D.&D.Meadows and others from the reports "Limits to
>Growth" and "Beyond the Limits" as well as real facts sheets of the
>Soviet Union's economy in 1985-1998 and what the author experienced
>personally.
> Nothing else.
> From my point of view the scenario as described below can happen
>at any moment if the current activities of governments, business, and
>NGOs do not change dramatically in the next few months.
> My goal is to invite you to do everything possible to avoid the
>anticipated events.
> Please excuse my brevity and lack of professional English - I am
>prepared to answer all those who are interested with specific analysis
>if requested.
>
> ***
> 1. The first and most evident consequence of the crisis will be
>the deep de-globalization of economy.
> As in the USSR all interstate borders and barriers will be
>restored and strengthened and the nations will restore their full
>sovereignty including prevention of emmigration and extradiction of
>immigrants and foreigners.
> The biggest nations (like big systems); ie the US, Canada,
>Russia, and China, will break up into smaller units: confederations,
>states or republics. Maybe it will not just happen to the big systems?
>Remember the cases of Yugoslavia and Checkoslovakia?!
> It is easy also to foresee the disruption of the majority of
>communications - Internet (the first to go), then the postal service,
>transportation, etc.
>
> 2. The world market will simply disappear and the companies that
>rely on world trade will be destroyed. It will be the same with the
>countries that have an export oriented economy. It is easy to predict
>the bankruptcy of companies where they have production units
>distributed in different countries or simply where there are large
>distances separating them from each other.
> The high technology sector will collapse because it is dependent
>on global trade -the manufacture of computers and electronics require
>parts and labor from many countries.
>
> 3. The international bodies like UN, UNESCO, WTO, World Bank, etc
>will be also cease to exists or will become vestigial structures
>without any real power or influence. It is very probable that even the
>idea of international legislation and international rights will be
>abolished.
>
> 4. Because of the extremely difficult economic situation all the
>states will deliberatly separate from each other and disavow all
>social obligations, including the support of science, education,
>healthcare, etc. Conversely, the state authorities will quickly build
>up the military and police structures and will spend the majority of
>their budget to build a strong army and strong internal security,
>including the structure of suppression of the popular protests.
> Because it is likely fear will reign, the population of the
>majority of the countries, including the most democratic, will agree
>with such changes in state policy and even the notions of civil
>society and state's rights will be forgotten for centuries (hopefully,
>only decades).
> In the majority of states, authoritarian or totalitarian regimes
>will establish themselves under democratic election procedures
>(Germany in 1933 and Belorussia in 1996 are prime examples of how this
>happens).
> It is very probable that humanity will lose Science as a means of
>managing society. Science will be replaced by the worship of
>technology and antiquated religious beliefs.
>
> 5. The inequality in capability by the nation-states to arrive at
>some form of economic self-suffiency will lead to an array of
>international military conflicts where the whole spectrum of weapons,
>including nuclear, chemical and bacteriological, will be used.
> All international mechanisms preventing the use of chemical and
>nuclear weapons will cease to exist. Poverty will force the states
>(and private citizens) possessing such weapons and/or technologies to
>sell them to those who would use them!
> It is very probable (and the Iraq-US conflict illustrates this )
>that the Western countries will in all likelihood be the initiator of
>the Third World War: they will lose their financial stability during
>the crisis but not their ambitions and weapons.
> ***
> The result of the crisis will be that Humanity will return, to
>God knows what century...
> ***
> The first victims of the crisis will be the population of the
>developed countries, ie North America, Western Europe, New Zealand,
>Australia, Japan, etc. They have the most to lose. They will lose
>their quality of life, their comfort and their position as leading
>nations.
> Believe me - these will be truly national catastrophes. And I
>really feel compassion for these peoples because they have no modern
>experience of growing food and living off the land. They do not have
>any recent experience in long-term storage (foods, clothing. etc )
> Even if they did, the majority of the population in these
>countries have no private parcels of land to provide themselves with
>food.
> On the other hand - the developed countries - because they are
>still rich, educated, powerful, etc have the chance to meet the crisis
>with appropriate means. And to succeed to soften it - because it is
>too late to entirely prevent it.
>
> The Socio-Ecological Union (285 groups from 18 countries)
>formulated these means as follows:
>
> - assist the development of all forms of local democratic
>self-government, mutually beneficial, self-sufficient local economies,
>and the emergence of a non-governmental citizen movement to protect
>human and environmental rights. A form of minimally centralized,
>collective, self-organization will serve as the societal means to
>overcome the crisis.
>
> - enhance the access of essential life-affirming information and
>develop the spread of environmental education, using all means
>possible. This is the equivalent to creating the intellectual, moral,
>and spiritual conditions needed to overcome the crisis.
>
> - technologically "retro-fit" the human race within the limits
>imposed by the Biosphere which includes processing all human waste.
>This means quickly developing the appropriate technology necessary to
>overcome the crisis.
>
> - reduce industrial and agricultural impact on the environment
>and conserve as many natural areas as possible in different parts of
>the world. This means conserving the natural environment and resources
>necessary to overcome the crisis.
>
> - initiate global cooperation among all people despite their
>social, political, national, or religious beliefs, or their
>involvement in state, business or public sectors--anyone able to act
>together towards reaching the above-stated goals. This means creating
>the organizational mechanisms to overcome the crisis.
>
> All these objectives are equally important, and progress towards
>realizing any one of them will both help lessen the impact of the
>crisis and move us towards the development of a new civilization.
>
> ***
> We as Human Beings, as Homo Sapiens, have a chance not to go
>backwards, but to move forward to the next level of social
>organization--what could be termed a cooperative, spiritually informed
>civilization. God and/or Evolution gave us free-will. Let us choose
>Life!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>Professor Alf Hornborg
>Human Ecology Division
>Lund University
>Finngatan 16
>223 62 Lund, Sweden
>Tel. 46-46-222 3113
>Fax. 46-46-222 3695
>
>