30 years from now

Fri, 11 Apr 1997 15:34:26 EST5EDT
Terry Boswell (TBOS@social-sci.ss.emory.edu)

Thompson and Rosov have made some good points. If current trends
continue, then 30 years from now greater multipolarity and
interdependence would greatly increase the probability of a major
power war. Greater China, EU, NAFTA, Russia and Japan seem to be the
most likely great powers, with the last two in the most precarious
positions. Add in (hopefully) a surging South Africa and Brazil, and
the mix is even more potent.

It is the "If current trends continue," that is doubtful. Would not
we expect a slow down in Chinese growth rates as its level of
development reaches core levels?


Terry Boswell
Department of Sociology
Emory University
Atlanta, GA 30322