Almost all replies to Dr.Kim's question on Collapse of
Communism refer to ENDOGENOUS factors: geopolitical,
economical, ideological features and processes in communist
regimes, first of all in Russia (all agree that
namely the constellation of all these factors occured to be
crucial). Georgii Derlugian (U. of Michigan) also wrote me
about two more primary predictors: Isaac Deutcher whose
book about the future of USSR written in 1950-s is highly
valued by I.Wallerstein, and Russian dissident Amalric who
analysed in 1970's if USSR exist until 1984.
If anybody noticed that all endogenous explanations
are contradictory to one of common places of WS approach,
that USSR and its
satellites were not more than semispherical parts of global
world capitalist system (Wallerstein, Chase-Dunn, Shannon,
etc)?
Really, if it is one global system, the explanatory reasons
MUST also concern the interior mechanisms of the system as a
whole. If the main reasons are specific for communist
countries, say, Russia, we should already consider (at least)
TWO world-systems (I think until 1980-90-s there were THREE:
Western World Economy and two communist systems
dominated by USSR and China that had basic typical
features of world-empires).
Only A.G.Frank included in his explanation the B-phase of
Kondratieff since 1967.
Well, nobody says that there were no mutual
influences between two (or three including China) world-
systems. At the same time I argue that it was not intra-
systemic but namely INTER-SYSTEMIC influence.
Remember the
Great Depression of 1930-s which was owful even for core
countries. By traditional WS theory, the core had to move
pression to pheriphery and semipherophery, say, socialist-
communist "sub-system". Not at all! The industrialization
continued (surely by terrible means: GULAG, collectivization,
etc) but even such national schock as Hitlerian invasion up to
Moscow and Volga-river did not lead to collapse of USSR, but
on the contrary - caused integration, spread of Communism
to all Eastern Europe and 20 years of post-war real mass
enthusiasm.
The rejection of dogma of globality of world-
economy urges us to reevaluate some historical views.
When the Western capitalist world-economy became
global? Not in late 19th century but only in 100 years - now!
Even this date is not evident. If China is already deeply
involved in world economy, Russia is not yet. The ideological
trend for isolation are rather strong here and it may take 3-
5-10 years for real and steady involvement.
We are used to hear and tell each other that we live in
the end of epoch of global capitalism. Isn't it an
intellectual schock for some of us to realize that we only NOW
enter into the epoch of global world-economy?
I will be very grateful for comments and counter-
arguments. Nikolai
Nikolai S. Rozov
Professor of Philosophy
PhD., Dr.Sc.
Moderator of the mailing list PHILOFHI
(PHILosophy OF HIstory and theoretical history)
Dept. of Philosophy Tel.: (3832) 397488
Novosibirsk State University Fax.: (3832) 355237
630090, Novosibirsk E-mail: rozov@nw.cnit.nsk.su
Pirogova 2 rozov@adm.nsu.nsk.su