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Date: Thu, 29 Jun 1995 14:05:41 -0500 (EST)
From: David Kelly <dkelly@indiana.edu>
To: World System Net <wsn@csf.colorado.edu>
Subject: Discussion of Arrighi's "Long 20th Century"
I've enjoyed the discussion to date, but suspect that I have a slightly
different interest from those heard from so far. Being a proponent of
leadership long cycles I am far less concerned with whether or not GA
fits into a Wallersteinian "world-systems" lineage. My primary interests
in reading this book were Arrighi's ideas on transitions at the apex of
of the system and his ideas on the role of finance capitalism in
leadership succession.
The slow down of material expansion (MC phase) signals two things: the
maturity of a regime of accumulation and the rise of finance over
commerce and industry. As the current system leader has the largest
reserves of liquid capital it is in a position to derive the greatest
benefit from competition. However, this is also a period when the
weaknesses of the current regime are exposed and exploited by rising powers.
This is where Arrighi becomes interesting for long cyclists. Current
long cycle (Modelski and Thompson, 1995) models of rising and declining
leaders say only that the rising leader is able to capitalize on
innovative industries or organizational skills. There is no hint as to
how this fits into the structure created by the previous leader. Arrighi
suggests two ways in which it is connected: the exploitation of
neglected or inefficiently exploited areas of the economy and financial
investment by capitalists in the lead state in the rising states/economies.
Leadership succession becomes, therefore, less a matter of geographical
happenstance or fortune of war (although Arrighi notes that new leaders
only consolidate their position after a global war). Since leadership,
according to Arrighi, is dependent on commercial, agro-industrial, AND
financial power, investment choices made by the declining leader serve as
a "vote" in the resolution of the leadership succession by strengthening
a particular candidate. The choice of investments is based on the
probability for greatest return on invested capital. It seems unclear,
however, if calculations of return are based on short, medium, or
long-term probabilities.
The alliance of investments explains the pattern observable in global
wars of declining and rising global leaders allying against other rising
powers, ones which threaten the economic system which is benefitting both
leaders. Global wars are the means by which the rising leader clearly
establishes its predominance over the other actors in the system.
I'll stop there. Any comments or critiques?
David Kelly
Indiana University
Prof. Chris Chase-Dunn
Department of Sociology
Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore, MD. 21218 USA
tel 410 516 7633 fax 410 516 7590 email chriscd@jhu.edu