About the dollar, I understand that there is bad new and worse news. In
the short run, currencies fluctuate with marginal changes in real
interest rates. Inflation has been low, so everytime the Fed increased
rates, the dollar went up. Rates appear to have peaked, so unless
inflation falls or other countries lower rates, the dollar has no place
to go but down. This is generally bad news. The dollar's slide prevents
the Fed from lowering interest rates, hurting US growth. However, it
pressures others to eventually lower their interest rates. If Germany
would lower its rates, we could possibly see improved economic growth in
Europe, which would further aid US exports, off-setting some of drag
from high US interest rates.
The worse news, for the US, are reports saying that the dollar's decline has
precipitated a shift in reserve currencies for global traders. This
appears to be apply mainly in Asia, where the Yen is now increasingly
considered a safer reserve currency. This would mean that the Yen would
increasingly replace the dollar as the typical currency of international
exchange in Asian markets. Perhaps others know more about what is happening
in Asia. If there is a shift in reserve currencies, then it means a much
more fundamental shift in power than the fluctuation in interest rates.
The fundamental shift represents the long term decline in US hegemony,
and explains why that decline would be hard to reverse.