SARS and East Asia: Will the Re-emergence of the "East" be a Dud? ...

Tonight’s NBC Nightly News cast featured two stories about the SARS epidemic, one dealing with the problem in Eastern Asia (Hong Kong, China) and the other here in the United States and in Canada. It indicated the already struggling East and SE Asian economies are going to be crippled even further once this crisis reaches its full extent. The other night, the story was that this disease would have a terrible effect on the world economy once the ripple effect of it is carried in full.

My question for any of you: world historians, systematists, and longwavers. In the long term, will the results of this epidemic hamper East Asia’s re-emergence to the hegemony in the world system that it lost between 1350/1450/1500 and 1900? I’m using this dating to account both f/ AGF’s ReOrient arguments and those that say the “Rise of the West” and the “Fall of the East” took place at an earlier date.

So what are your thoughts? I’m guessing there’s a overall mechanism at work that might stall or otherwise cancel out the negative outcomes of this disease’s social/economic repercussions so that the “[Re-]Rise of the East” comes back on schedule. But the economic indicators and patterns I’ve heard about in the news don’t seem to be showing that. All the trajectories seem to be pointing toward “crisis” for China and the other socioeconomies of that part of the world.

So, is there a some sort of global mechanism that will balance out the chips again, and put things back on course for Asia’s reemergence (led by China, Japan, and the SE Asian economies)? Or have things gone even beyond that point? I’d like to get your opinions on these questions. (Luke R.)

Luke Rondinaro, Group Facilitator

The Consilience Projects