Re: Kondratieff

I am a student of economics and political science. Up to now I have only read Schumpeter's Business Cycles and some papers on the long wave by Kondrarieff himself. Nevertheless it seems to me that the Kondratieff cycle sometimes is more close to economic mysticism than to, what might be called, scientific evidence (A cycle just because of observing floating agricultural prices in the 19th century and computing it by mathematical regression ?). I would like to ask all of you whether you can give me some more information (books, articles,...) about this cyclical phenomenon, especially in regard to its application on world-system analysis.

Thank you very much,

Klaus

Klaus IRO

Forskarbacken 3:0132

SE-104 05 Stockholm, SWEDEN

>From: Threehegemons@aol.com

>To: Nemonemini@aol.com, consiliencep@topica.com, wsn@csf.colorado.edu

>Subject: Re: Kondratieff

>Date: Tue, 08 Apr 2003 23:19:59 -0400

>In a message dated 4/8/2003 7:05:07 PM Eastern Standard Time, Nemonemini writes:

> > have a question. Ken says that the world-economy has been

> > depressed for the past 3 decades. The general understanding among

> > world-systems people is that the world-economy entered a B-wave in the

> > Kondratieff cycle as early as 1968, and no later than the early 1970s.

> > Are we still riding that B-wave, 35 years down the road? Isn't this a

> > longish time, and can anybody reasonably forecast the

> > arrival of an A-wave

> > any time soon? Or is Kondratieff no longer working?

>I recall that Wallerstein used to say the B-phase would end around 1990, maybe a little later. I've heard him say we are still in the B-phase. But he also deemphasizes Kondratieff's since they aren't as important as the 'bifurcation' point.

>Arrighi doesn't seem to have much use for Kondratieff's these days--he barely mentions them in Long Twentieth Century and Chaos and Governance.

>I think it was Wally Goldfrank who claimed at an ASA roundtable a couple of years ago that we are now in the a-phase. I'm pretty sure Marxist economist Anwar Sheik has a similar view. And Chase-Dunn? Maybe he is on this list? Or can someone illuminate us on his view? AGF? Your view?

>Steven Sherman