Imperialism and War (historical statistics)

Imperialism and War (historical statistics)

Here are some historical statistics about imperialism and war which may be
of interest in the present situation. The expression "imperialism" was
impressed upon me by the editor of the journal. I had originally called it
"hegemonial leadership". The study used Singer and Small statistics on war
for the period 1816 - 1974. I identified 15 countries that had been, and/or
still were in 1974, "hegemonial leaders" and examined their war activities.
Ignoring the magnitudes of the wars and ignoring the aggressor/defender
question, I came up with an average of 0.8 war involvements per country per
decade of hegemonial leadership.

Next, I subdivided the 15 countries into two groups, group 1 = 7 countries
whose hegemonial leadership had expired (e.g., Austria) and group 2 = 8
countries whose hegemonial leadership was still ongoing in 1974 (e.g., USA).
The finding was that the seven ex-hegemonial leaders (imperialist or
quasi-imperialist countries) had become very peaceful after they lost their
hegemonial leadership (empire, hegemonial zones, hegemonial status). Thus:

Group 1 (ex-hegemons) - (a) during their hegemonial phase, had 0.75 wars per
decade; (b) after their hegemonial phase, had 0.08 wars per decade (on
average).

Group 2 (ongoing hegemons in 1974) - (a) during their hegemonial phase, had
0.81 wars per decade (on average); (b) after their hegemonial phase,
information not available.

Group 1 (ex-hegemons) included Austria, Belgium, Germany/Prussia/Germanies,
Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Turkey

Group 2 (on-going hegemons) included  China, England, France, India,
Portugal, Russia/USSR, Spain, USA.

Note that the periods of "hegemonial leadership" for several countries were
less than 1816-1974. For example, for China, I counted 1950-1974 and
diagnosed "hegemonial status" because of China's overlordship over Tibet,
Mongolia, North Korea, and North Vietnam. Portugal, etc. had remnants of
their colonial empires in 1974. Note that "war" was operationally defined as
in Singer and Small.

Gert

Reference:
Gernot Köhler, "Imperialism as a Level of Analysis in Correlates-of-War
Research", Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 19, no. 1 (March 1975), pp.
48-62. Also reprinted by UNESCO