the final nail? (fwd)

Regardless of the eventual outcome of the war (or even regardless of
whether or not there is a war), it seems like NATO is history.



10.02.2003

Does the Great Divide Spell the End for NATO?



The decision by Germany, France and Belgium to protest NATO's plans for 
protecting Turkey in the event of war with Iraq has driven a wedge between the 
member states.

The issue of a looming war in Iraq continues to divide nations at every level 
of organization. The United Nations Security Council, the transatlantic 
relationship and now NATO are all split on the best way to resolve the crisis. 
With France, Germany and Belgium refusing to support any NATO protection for 
Turkey in the event of an attack on Iraq, saying it would constitute a "logic 
for war" and a failure for diplomacy, a serious rift has developed in the 
organization.
A nail in NATO's coffin?
Daniel Keohane, an expert on NATO from the Center of European Reform in London, 
told DW-WORLD that the signs for the alliance are ominous.
"This is hugely significant for the future of NATO," he said. "It puts not only 
the political future of the organization in doubt but also any military role it 
may have."
He said the credibility of NATO has been put into question as a result of 
several actions, including the Americans' bypassing NATO in the war on terror 
and the French opposing the use of NATO troops 'out of field', that is taking 
over missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo. While at one time it might have looked 
as if it would be the Americans pushing NATO into irrelevance, it seems that 
parts of Europe have lost interest in the treaty organization.
"It could possibly be the final nail in the organization's coffin," Keohane 
said.
Position and role must be reconsidered
"Keohane said it is difficult to predict what the short-term effects of the 
current division will be. But he added that NATO will have to reconsider its 
role, although in his opinion it is unlikely that France and Belgium will 
maintaining their position of opposing the defense of Turkey.
But if they do, it will be shocking and it will quicken the process of NATO's 
death," Keohane said.
Effect on Europe could be disastrous
"The effect on Europe of this position could mean the isolation of Germany and 
could spell disaster for the transatlantic alliance. The Americans would have 
to go outside the UN with the willing 'Gang of 8' - the leaders that signed the 
European letter of support. The French and Germans, if they maintain their 
stance, would not trust the others and NATO would collapse," said Keohane.
Although NATO has seen better times, Keohane maintains that there is reason for 
guarded optimism. The organization may be at the end of its life as a unified 
political and military alliance, but by embracing change in an ever-changing 
world; the organization can still be relevant in other areas.
Reinvention to remain relevant
Keohane said for NATO to survive, it might well need to reinvent itself as a 
peacekeeper. In the future, the organization may no longer be critical in 
matters of war and peace but find a new mission in preserving stability after 
open hostilities have ended.
"It seems increasingly likely that NATO will not be consulted or trusted by the 
Europeans or the Americans to take part in any political or military 
situations," said Keohane, "but could be employed through UN mandates in areas 
of reconstruction."

Autor: Nick Amies

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