whose oil?

It pays to read the business press. An article in Business Week Online -
http://www.businessweek.com/print/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2003/nf20030130_7199.htm?gb -
reveals a number of interesting points regarding the significance of the black substance that James Baker told a former Indian prime minister "IS our civilization."

>From the Business Week perspective, "Bottom line in the Oil Patch: Keep your lip zipped, hope George W. is right, and go along for the ride." As I look at it, the bottom line for the antiwar movement is: don't pin your hopes on the second tier imperialists -- specifically the Russians and the French -- to stop this war. Colin Powell may be squawking like a hawk, but you can bet behind the scenes he and his minions are wheeling and dealing with the French and Russians to get them lined up behind the invasion. Here's why, based on the facts presented in the BW article:

1) Securing the Iraqi oil fields for global capitalism of course presents a golden opportunity. According to BW, the benefits include "assuring a larger and more stable supply outside of Saudi Arabian domination" as well as the stimulative effects of "modernizing the decrepit Iraqi oil industry." (This according to a study co-sponsored by the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, one should note.)

2) "Since the U.S. military would control Iraq's oil and gas deposits for some time, U.S. companies could be in line for a lucrative slice of that business. They may snag some drilling rights, too. "The oil-service industry is pretty much American-dominated," says an exec at one U.S. company" according to the article. The specific U.S. based companies that are salivating for this prize include Dick Cheney's "former" employer Haliburton, as well as Baker Hughes (geez, there's a name that keeps popping up) and the perrenial icon of the power elite, Bechtel.

3. Ahh, but this aspect of the situation is precisely what "troubles the French and Russians". The French, long "a major player in developing Iraqi fields" think the war "is totally about oil," according to a top exec at TotalFinaElf. The key Russian company that is "angling for a piece of the action" is Lukoil.

4. " So who will reap the big bucks from getting Saddam's oil fields back on track?" asks Business Week. Both the French and Russian giant oil companies already have contracts pending with the current regime in Iraq. TotalFinaElf currently has development rights to about a quarter of Iraqi reserves. Russia's in a weaker position, but holds $8 billion of Iraqi debt from the Soviet era. The U.S. companies are currently iced out because of the sanctions.

If anyone has illusions about the French holdout in approving this new round of primitive accumulation having any basis in a moral commitment to fraternite, they should think again. The Russians are already waffling, and calculators in Paris are overheating with the cost-benefit analysis that is surely taking place. If the French cave, you can be sure some kind of deal has been struck.

My advice to the movement: the best hope for stopping this juggernaut is the people in the streets, not the imperialists overseas. The inspections are at best a delaying tactic, at worst a pretext available to any of the imperialists to use for cover. The fundamental demands remain: No Blood for Oil! A Better World is Possible!