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Re: Has China Become an Ally? by John Gulick 27 October 2002 23:29 UTC |
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Regarding the Liberthal article posted by Boris Stremlin, what do WSN list members think of the following set of (very crudely formulated and very hastily scripted) propositions ? 1) More and more, the U.S. foreign policy establishment recognizes that the EU (most notably the continental EU countries) poses the greatest threat to the sustenance of its global pre-eminence. The Euro currency bloc presents the biggest challenge to U.S. seignorage privileges. France and Germany are the leading opponents of Bush and company's muscular interpretation of the full spectrum dominance doctrine (epitomized by its stance on regime change in Iraq). The EU states are playing hardball on various trade and investment disputes (US steel tarrifs, agricultural subsidies, tax breaks for overseas TNC affiliates, etc.). The EU states still embrace models of mature capitalism and corporate governance somewhat at odds with the U.S. neo-liberal and shareholder value models. The left wing of the political class in the EU states (unlike the Democrats in the U.S.) is sympathetic to the anti-Washington Consensus claims advanced by non-core NGO's, social movements, and electoral parties (in fora such as Porto Alegre). 2) The softening position of the U.S. toward the PRC is driven by the growing awareness of 1). To oversimplify, the hegemonic power has decided to extend its cooperative ties w/one of its putative rivals (the PRC) in order to outflank the EU states which are no longer behaving like pliant junior partners. All in all, this makes a lot of sense, for both the CCP elites and the U.S. The fate of the CCP elites depends in large part upon social stability in China, which in turn depends in large part on continued high rates of economic growth, which in turn depends (at least for now) in large part on 1) guaranteed access to U.S. markets, 2) continued high rates of FDI (much of it U.S. FDI), 3) predictable and cheap flows of Persian Gulf oil, for which only the U.S. Navy can supply "security." The U.S. knows just how dependent the CCP elites are on U.S markets, U.S. FDI, and the global reach of the U.S. military, and hence feel comfortable engaging China as a hedge against souring relations with the EU states. Also, the U.S. realizes that because of the historic antagonism b/w China and Japan, it need not fear a self-contained currency, trade, and investment bloc intertwining China and Japan. It can continue to deal with each of them bilaterally, rather than having to deal with an undiplomatic united front (contra the case of the EU minus the UK). At the same time, just to assure the complicity of the CCP elites, the US has to apply a certain amount of pressure: it must maintain its ambiguous stance on Taiwan, hew to its position on national missile defense, present itself as the "solution" to the "problem" of North Korean nuclear capability, and so on. 3) As these reshuffled geopolitical and geoeconomic contours in the world system take shape, Russia is the wild card. The eastward expansion of NATO was about driving a wedge between the EU and Russia, reinforcing both the EU's reliance on U.S. military protection, and the post-Soviet ruling class' reliance on the Wall Street/Treasury complex for concessionary loans, a place to stash ill-begotten money from the privatization plunder, and so on. But just as the US tried to use NATO expansion as a means for interrupting a horizontal alliance between the EU and Russia, Putin today is attempting to take advantage of the widening U.S.-EU rift as a lever to secure favors from both. I suspect that the likely invasion of Iraq will push Russia more decisively into the EU camp (a preview of this, of course, is French-Russian collaboration over the wording of the UN resolution). 4) Here is a novel contribution I have to make: the deepening of relations b/w the U.S. and the PRC will be one of the factors further pushing Russia into the EU camp. The novelty of my argument is this: the deepening of U.S.-PRC ties is predicated on the commitment of CCP elites to the deepening of neo-liberal economic restructuring. While the latter may continue to yield the GDP growth necessary for the CCP's political legitimacy, it will also exacerbate the uprooting of the peasantry, and the joblessness of the state-owned enterprise labor force. These effects may not be severe enough to undermine social stability in the country as a whole, but they will be experienced most acutely in Northeast China, because of the predominance of "inefficient" (by capitalist market standards) grain growers and heavy industry in this region. Far East Russia borders Northeast China and will absorb heavy migration streams of displaced peasants and SOE workers, piquing local resentment about the "Chinese threat," resentment that will be transmitted westward to Moscow. To speculate wildly, I suspect that Bush naming North Korea as a member of the "axis of evil" and the recent leak about developments in the North Korean nuclear program has something to do with justifying enhanced U.S. military presence in the region, such that coming cross-border tensions between China and Russia can be steered in the direction of U.S.-Chinese and hence U.S. interests. 5) The prospect of a nation-wide insurgence by Chinese peasants and workers exceeds the prospect of an EU-Russian alliance as a threat to U.S. hegemony (just as a successful Taiping Rebellion might have hastened the end of British hegemony 150 years ago). It is impossible to know if this will or will not happen, but what is relatively certain is that the current model of Chinese development (to which the CCP elites and increasingly U.S. ruling groups are wedded) is riven with fundamental environmental contradictions that will eventually stem increases in the mean standard of living (measured both quantitatively and qualitatively), which may or may not translate into mass social and political upheaval. John Gulick _________________________________________________________________ Get a speedy connection with MSN Broadband. Join now! http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/freeactivation.asp
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