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Re: questions for discussion by Threehegemons 25 September 2002 18:03 UTC |
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I have little to add to John's comments about military prospects in Iraq. Between the scylla of believing the US is all powerful and the Chardibis of always declaring 'the US will regret this' its very difficult to make accurate predictions about precisely how any military operation will go. Boris raised some interesting questions about the UN and the EU. The UN has often been a tool of US hegemony (Korea, the gulf war up until 1998)but, when necessary, the US has simply ignored it (Israel, Vietnam, Kosovo, Afghanistan). For a time in the seventies and eighties it seemed to be becoming a tool for a challenge to US hegemony by the third world (at this point, liberal opinion in the US became highly skeptical of the UN). I suppose what Boris is wondering is whether the UN can be a tool for the EU to restrain the US a bit and push for a settlement of Israel/Palestine. The question is, how much power does the UN really have? Could it grow in power without the cooperation of the US? And if it remains a tool of the US, what other tools might the EU try to use to further its objectives? I was kind of surprised about Al Gore's statements. On the other hand, Clinton was always the most 'European' point on the American political spectrum (excluding ex-President Carter, who no one takes seriously). I suspect most popular opinion in the US will fold into pro-war sentiment once (if?) Bush launches a war. I don't think popular opposition to war will collapse in Europe. At this point Bush is acting almost like he doesn't care if Europe is with him. I think the EU would just as soon remain close friends with the US, but Bush is making it difficult. What would be the implications of a deepening split? Would a fraction of the US elite object and try to force Bush to mend fences? I have to say, I find the Bush phenomenon a little puzzling. Obviously, the guys an idiot surrounded by nuts, but why is the US elite letting him get away with this? I think there is an aspect of bonapartism here. The 2000 election was the first in a long time when left of center forces won a clear majority of the vote. And the trends that led to that majority are going to intensify. So Bush stole the election, and unleashes the hawks to whip up a patriotic furor that will keep real debate about domestic politics off the table... Steven Sherman
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