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estimating fatalities among the Afghan DP and refugee population by g kohler 08 December 2001 18:41 UTC |
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estimating fatalities among the Afghan DP and
refugee population
During a war, soldiers and civilians may die either
from bombs and bullets or from non-combat, but war-related causes. For example,
in the splendid little imperialist war of Teddy Roosevelt (Spanish-American war,
1898), many American soldiers were not dying in battle, but from fever
contracted from the swamps of Cuba. What are the fatalities from non-combat
causes in DP and refugee camps related to the war in Afghanistan, October 07 -
Dec 07, 2001?
A recent report by an NGO, carried by Le Monde,
permits us to estimate a death ratio, which tells what percentage of DPs and
refugees were dying from hunger and cold during the past two months. The Le
Monde article is appended below.
(1) My estimate of the DP death ratio is, as
follows:
(a) the report mentions 2800 families in the camp. I make the assumption that 1 family = 4 persons. Other assumption can be made. (b) the report states that during 1 month the camp lost 177 vulnerable persons (children and old) due to hunger and cold. (c) result - it follows from (a) and (b) that the death ratio per month = 177 / (2800 * 4) per month = 1.58% per month (2) The magnitude of fatalities of the entire
Afghan DP and refugee population can be estimated, as follows:
(a) assume a death rate of 1.58% per month (b) assume 1 million DPs and refugees (c) assume 2 months (d) result - it follows from a,b,c that the number of persons who died from hunger, cold, lack of physicians and exhaustion as DPs or refugees during the past two months, may have been: 1,000,000 * 1.58% * 2 = 31,600 (nota bene, this does not include civilians killed by bombs and bullets) Gert Kohler
As Mohatma Gandhi said - "Western civilization
would be a good idea"
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Appendix 1 - Le Monde article in English (my translation) From: Le Monde, December 07, 2001
According to an NGO, 177 persons died of hunger and
cold in a camp
On hundred and seventy-seven persons, mostly
children, have died of hunger and cold during the past four weeks in a camp of
displaced persons near Kunduz according to witness accounts collected by the
International Migration Organization (IMO, French acronym OIM), reported its
spokesman in Geneva, Jean-Philippe Chauzy on Wednesday, December 7.
Since November 11, the members of IMO had been
prevented by the taliban from entering the camp of Baghe Sherkat, very close to
Kunduz, and could not return there until Thursday.
"Our teams have collected witness accounts from
those responsible in the camp, the "block leaders", according to whom 177
persons, from the most vulnerable group, that is to say, the children and the
aged, have died recently from hunger and cold", said Mr. Chauzy at a press
conference of the UN. The members of IMO were also able to determine what the
living conditions in the camp are and have described them as
"miserable".
Before the evacuation from Afghanistan of the
expatriats of IMO on the eve of the attacks of September 11 in the United
States, the humanitarian organization had counted some 2,800 families in the
camp of Baghe Sherkat. These received assistance until mid-October. The the
Taliban occupied the offices of IMO in Kunduz, sealed off its warehouse and
formally prohibited its local personnel to take assistance to the camp of the
displaced
persons.
"Because of this prohibition, thousands of blankets, winter clothes, boots could not be distributed," said Mr. Chauzy. Between November 6 and 11, the distribution of aid was resumed until it was interrupted again on orders of the taliban. "We have been without news from our personnel until
the fall of Kunduz on November 26.
Subsequently, our office and warehouse were occupied by the forces of the Northern Alliance. Our office has been returned only on Monday. In the meantime, children died of hunger and cold.," he said. . . . [article continues in French]
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Appendix 2 - Le Monde article in French • LEMONDE.FR | 07.12.01 |
19h54
• MIS A JOUR LE 07.12.01 |
20h31
Selon une ONG, 177 personnes sont mortes de faim et de froid dans un camp
Cent soixante-dix-sept personnes, en majorité des enfants, sont mortes
de
faim et de froid au cours des quatre dernières semaines, dans un camp de déplacés près de Kunduz, selon des témoignages recueillis par l'Organisation internationale pour les migrations (OIM), a rapporté, vendredi 7 décembre, son porte-parole à Genève, Jean-Philippe Chauzy.
Depuis le 11 novembre, les membres de l'OIM avaient été empêchés par
les
talibans de se rendre dans le camp de Baghe Sherkat, tout près de Kunduz, et n'ont pu y retourner que jeudi.
"Nos équipes ont alors recueilli des
témoignages
des responsables du camp, les "block leaders", selon lesquels 177 personnes, parmi les plus vulnérables, c'est-à-dire les enfants et les personnes âgées, sont récemment mortes de faim et de froid", a indiqué M. Chauzy, au cours d'une réunion de presse de l'ONU. Les membres de l'OIM ont également pu constater quelles étaient les conditions de vie dans le camp, et les ont qualifiées de "misérables".
Avant l'évacuation d'Afghanistan des expatriés
de
l'OIM au lendemain des attentats du 11 septembre aux Etats-Unis, l'organisation humanitaire avait recensé quelque 2 800 familles dans le camp de Baghe Sherkat. Celles-ci ont reçu une assistance jusqu'à la mi-octobre. Puis les talibans ont occupé les bureaux de l'OIM à Kunduz, posé des scellés sur son entrepôt et formellement interdit à ses personnels locaux de porter assistance au camp de déplacés. "A cause de cet interdit, des milliers de couvertures, de vêtements d'hiver, de bottes, n'ont pu être distribués", a dit M. Chauzy. Entre le 6 et le 11 novembre, la distribution de secours a repris, puis a été interrompue à nouveau sur ordre des talibans.
"Nous sommes restés sans nouvelles de
notre
personnel jusqu'à la chute de Kunduz, le 26 novembre. Par la suite, notre bureau et notre entrepôt ont été occupés par les forces de l'Alliance du Nord. Ce n'est que lundi que notre bureau a été restitué. Entre-temps, des enfants sont morts de faim et de froid", a-t-il dit.
Il y a deux mois, le représentant de l'Unicef
pour
l'Afghanistan avait annoncé qu'en plus des 300 000 enfants qui meurent chaque année dans ce pays, environ 100 000 enfants pourraient mourir de froid et de faim cet hiver en Afghanistan. "Maintenant l'hiver est arrivé. On constate que des enfants commencent à mourir. Hélas, cela ne fait que confirmer ce que l'on annonçait il y a quelques semaines", a commenté Marc Vergara, porte-parole de l'Unicef.
Un convoi de l'OIM, parti de
Douchanbé
(Tadjikistan), est arrivé vendredi à Kunduz avec plus de 15 000 vêtements d'hiver qui doivent être distribués aux déplacés. Cent tonnes de blé doivent être acheminées prochainement, également du Tadjikistan.
Avec AFP
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