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estimating fatalities among the Afghan DP and refugee population
by g kohler
08 December 2001 18:41 UTC
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estimating fatalities among the Afghan DP and refugee population
 
During a war, soldiers and civilians may die either from bombs and bullets or from non-combat, but war-related causes. For example, in the splendid little imperialist war of Teddy Roosevelt (Spanish-American war, 1898), many American soldiers were not dying in battle, but from fever contracted from the swamps of Cuba. What are the fatalities from non-combat causes in DP and refugee camps related to the war in Afghanistan, October 07 - Dec 07, 2001?
 
A recent report by an NGO, carried by Le Monde, permits us to estimate a death ratio, which tells what percentage of DPs and refugees were dying from hunger and cold during the past two months. The Le Monde article is appended below.
 
(1) My estimate of the DP death ratio is, as follows:
(a) the report mentions 2800 families in the camp. I make the assumption that 1 family = 4 persons. Other assumption can be made.
(b) the report states that during 1 month the camp lost 177 vulnerable persons (children and old) due to hunger and cold.
(c) result - it follows from (a) and (b) that the death ratio per month
= 177 / (2800 * 4) per month = 1.58% per month
 
(2) The magnitude of fatalities of the entire Afghan DP and refugee population can be estimated, as follows:
(a) assume a death rate of 1.58% per month
(b) assume 1 million DPs and refugees
(c) assume 2 months
(d) result - it follows from a,b,c that  the number of persons who died from hunger, cold, lack of physicians and exhaustion as DPs or refugees during the past two months, may have been:
1,000,000 * 1.58% * 2 = 31,600
(nota bene, this does not include civilians killed by bombs and bullets)
 
Gert Kohler
 
As Mohatma Gandhi said - "Western civilization would be a good idea"
 
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Appendix 1 - Le Monde article in English (my translation)
 
From: Le Monde, December 07, 2001
 
According to an NGO, 177 persons died of hunger and cold in a camp
 
On hundred and seventy-seven persons, mostly children, have died of hunger and cold during the past four weeks in a camp of displaced persons near Kunduz according to witness accounts collected by the International Migration Organization (IMO, French acronym OIM), reported its spokesman in Geneva, Jean-Philippe Chauzy on Wednesday, December 7.  
 
Since November 11, the members of IMO had been prevented by the taliban from entering the camp of Baghe Sherkat, very close to Kunduz, and could not return there until Thursday.
 
"Our teams have collected witness accounts from those responsible in the camp, the "block leaders", according to whom 177 persons, from the most vulnerable group, that is to say, the children and the aged, have died recently from hunger and cold", said Mr. Chauzy at a press conference of the UN. The members of IMO were also able to determine what the living conditions in the camp are and have described them as "miserable".
 
Before the evacuation from Afghanistan of the expatriats of IMO on the eve of the attacks of September 11 in the United States, the humanitarian organization had counted some 2,800 families in the camp of Baghe Sherkat. These received assistance until mid-October. The the Taliban occupied the offices of IMO in Kunduz, sealed off its warehouse and formally prohibited its local personnel to take assistance to the camp of the displaced persons.
           
"Because of this prohibition, thousands of blankets, winter clothes, boots could not be distributed," said Mr. Chauzy. Between November 6 and 11, the distribution of aid was resumed until it was interrupted again on orders of the taliban.
 
"We have been without news from our personnel until the fall of Kunduz on November 26.
Subsequently, our office and warehouse were occupied by the forces of the Northern Alliance.
Our office has been returned only on Monday. In the meantime, children died of hunger and cold.," he said.
 
. . . [article continues in French]
 
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Appendix 2 - Le Monde article in French
 
• LEMONDE.FR | 07.12.01 | 19h54               • MIS A JOUR LE 07.12.01 | 20h31
               Selon une ONG, 177 personnes sont mortes de
               faim et de froid dans un camp
 
               Cent soixante-dix-sept personnes, en majorité des enfants, sont mortes de
               faim et de froid au cours des quatre dernières semaines, dans un camp de
               déplacés près de Kunduz, selon des témoignages recueillis par l'Organisation
               internationale pour les migrations (OIM), a rapporté, vendredi 7 décembre, son
               porte-parole à Genève, Jean-Philippe Chauzy.
 
               Depuis le 11 novembre, les membres de l'OIM avaient été empêchés par les
               talibans de se rendre dans le camp de Baghe Sherkat, tout près de Kunduz, et
               n'ont pu y retourner que jeudi.
 
               "Nos équipes ont alors recueilli des témoignages
               des responsables du camp, les "block leaders",
               selon lesquels 177 personnes, parmi les plus
               vulnérables, c'est-à-dire les enfants et les personnes
               âgées, sont récemment mortes de faim et de froid",
               a indiqué M. Chauzy, au cours d'une réunion de presse
               de l'ONU. Les membres de l'OIM ont également pu
               constater quelles étaient les conditions de vie dans le
               camp, et les ont qualifiées de "misérables".
 
               Avant l'évacuation d'Afghanistan des expatriés de
               l'OIM au lendemain des attentats du 11 septembre aux
               Etats-Unis, l'organisation humanitaire avait recensé
               quelque 2 800 familles dans le camp de Baghe
               Sherkat. Celles-ci ont reçu une assistance jusqu'à la
               mi-octobre. Puis les talibans ont occupé les bureaux de
               l'OIM à Kunduz, posé des scellés sur son entrepôt et
               formellement interdit à ses personnels locaux de porter
               assistance au camp de déplacés. "A cause de cet
               interdit, des milliers de couvertures, de vêtements
               d'hiver, de bottes, n'ont pu être distribués", a dit M.
               Chauzy. Entre le 6 et le 11 novembre, la distribution de
               secours a repris, puis a été interrompue à nouveau sur
               ordre des talibans.
 
               "Nous sommes restés sans nouvelles de notre
               personnel jusqu'à la chute de Kunduz, le 26
               novembre. Par la suite, notre bureau et notre
               entrepôt ont été occupés par les forces de l'Alliance
               du Nord. Ce n'est que lundi que notre bureau a été
               restitué. Entre-temps, des enfants sont morts de
               faim et de froid", a-t-il dit.
 
               Il y a deux mois, le représentant de l'Unicef pour
               l'Afghanistan avait annoncé qu'en plus des 300 000
               enfants qui meurent chaque année dans ce pays,
               environ 100 000 enfants pourraient mourir de froid et
               de faim cet hiver en Afghanistan. "Maintenant l'hiver
               est arrivé. On constate que des enfants
               commencent à mourir. Hélas, cela ne fait que
               confirmer ce que l'on annonçait il y a quelques
               semaines", a commenté Marc Vergara, porte-parole
               de l'Unicef.
 
               Un convoi de l'OIM, parti de Douchanbé
               (Tadjikistan), est arrivé vendredi à Kunduz avec plus
               de 15 000 vêtements d'hiver qui doivent être distribués
               aux déplacés. Cent tonnes de blé doivent être
               acheminées prochainement, également du Tadjikistan.
 
               Avec AFP
 
 
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