Re: oil

I have not read Ahmed Rashid's book (well not yet!), but have re-read his
article on "The Taliban: Exporting Extremism" in Foreign Affairs,
November/December 1999 which is available on-line ( Cf.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/Search/document_briefings.asp?i=19991101faessa
y1017.xml ). I noted that in his analysis of the threat posed by
"Talibanization", the author made a distinction between "The next to fall:
Pakistan and Kashmir" and "Dominoes: Central Asia, Iran and China", to quote
the headings of two sections of the article. I did find the use of the term
of dominoes, reminiscent of the dominoes theory of the Cold War, quite
fascinating.

As a French historian who is indeed not a specialist of US foreign policy, I
wondered how influential Rashid's 1999 article in Foreign Affairs has been
on perceptions of the Afghan question and if such a reasoning in terms of
dominoes, was widely spread among US decison-makers ?


Dr Pascal Venier
Lecturer in French and International History
University of Salford
Manchester, England
Homepage: http://pascal.venier.free.fr/

-----Original Message-----
From: wsn-owner@csf.colorado.edu [mailto:wsn-owner@csf.colorado.edu]On
Behalf Of Richard N Hutchinson
Sent: jeudi 25 octobre 2001 20:02
To: Talmadge Wright
Cc: George Snedeker; psn; wsn@csf.colorado.edu
Subject: oil


I just took a look at "Taliban" by Rashid yesterday, as well as the piece
on Caspian basin energy in the Sept/Oct Foreign Affairs.

Neither provides any strong evidence that the U.S. is intervening in
Afghanistan for oil.  Yes, Unocal would like to build a pipeline (for
gas, not oil), but Rashid describes their lack of ability to influence
U.S. policy.  The main pipeline routes from the Caspian do not go through
Afghanistan -- the U.S. has been trying to establish a route through
Azerbaijan and Georgia and mainly Turkey, the BTC line
(Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan).  The CPC line, from the Tengiz oil field in
Kazakhstan to the Black Sea, is in service, a joint venture of Russia,
Kazakhstan, Oman and several oil companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil,
and LukArco.  Not the remotest connection to Afghanistan.

When the U.S. starts joining Russia in subduing Chechnyan rebels, or
pacifying Nagorno-Karabakh (an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan) we'll know
we have a war for oil going on, as those spots abut planned pipelines
running west from the Caspian.

RH