Kagarlitsky's "Reichstag Fire"

This is the full text of the Kagarlitsky article a snippet of which was
reproduced here earlier.  I must admit that the very same analogy occurred
to me.  Although I am not among those who believe in "peace at any cost",
because a failure by the US government to act in the face of compelling
evidence of terrorist activity will only strengthen the growth of
right-wing extremism and anti-Arab/Muslim sentiment here (and
fanatical Islamism abroad), the government's case against Bin Laden/Al
Queda is to this point far from airtight.  What we have seen so far has
been immediate statements to the effect that the attack constitutes a
declaration of war, statements by high government officials that Bin Laden
is the top suspect (with no backing evidence), and demands upon other
countries to cooperate with the US in its war.  Unlike the TWA Flight 800
investigation of a few years earlier, there have been no daily briefings
by the FBI on the state of the investigation - so far we are asked to
accept the allegations on faith alone.  In addition, terrorists experts
tell us that the accused hijackers do not fit the profile of suicide
bombers - they are generally middle-class, educated people in their 30's
and 40's with families.  In at least 3 cases, there have been allegations
that the hijackers were using stolen passports, creating a great deal of
confusion as to who they actually were (Muhammed Atta's father has
claimed to have received a telephone call from his son after the attacks
took place). In addition, those who have
been following the chronology of events will have noticed that the one
published immediately in the wake of the bombing (see e.g. NY Daily News
of Sept. 12) differs from the official Pentagon one (published today in
the NY Times).  

In any event, it is too early for definitive claims, and we would be well
advised against a new-jerk reaction one way or the other.  All efforts at
present should focus on the goverment to lay out its case in detail prior
to the initiation of hostilities.

The following article appeared in the Russian English-language online
daily, the Moscow Times.

---
Tuesday, Sep. 18, 2001. Page 13 
Bin Laden? Better Be Sure
By Boris Kagarlitsky  

The terrorist attack on New York has already been compared to Pearl Harbor
and the loss of the Kursk submarine. Mikhail Gorbachev likened it to
Chernobyl, which is probably a very accurate analogy in terms of the shock
and ignominy experienced by the U.S. administration. In both cases, we saw
incompetence and helplessness initially, followed by desperate attempts at
official face-saving. 

There is, however, one analogy that does not seem to have occurred to
anyone: the burning of the Reichstag. The anti-Arab and anti-Moslem hysteria
that has followed around the globe in the wake of the catastrophe simply
calls out for comparison with the events of the 1930s. The U.S. authorities
immediately started the search for the guilty among Arabs, Osama bin Laden
cropped up almost immediately as prime suspect and alternative versions have
barely been entertained. 

In the minutes immediately following the explosions, it seems there was no
doubt whatsoever regarding the "Arab" source of the attacks. However, the
more evidence and arguments adduced in support of the "Arab version," the
more shaky it seems to become. In a television appearance immediately after
the explosions, the well-known pundit Vyacheslav Nikonov noted that the
guilty would undoubtedly be found, and if not, they would be "nominated,"
adding cynically: "It would be in Russia's interest if the Taliban and bin
Laden were nominated."
To give him his due, Alexander Gordon -- who spoke on two TV programs --
pointed out that it could be far-right militia groups (such as those behind
the Oklahoma City bombing) and not Islamic terrorists at all. Analysts have
emphasised how easy it would be to carry out each individual element of the
terrorist operation: smuggling knives aboard a plane, breaking into the
cockpit, etc. However to coordinate all these actions in different parts of
the country without making a single serious blunder is devilishly hard.

The crime committed on Sept. 11 must have required enormous efforts in
management, control and logistics. The strength of Islamic terrorism is in
the simplicity of organization and its unpredictability. All groups operate
autonomously. Even the destruction of command centers doesn't have a major
impact, insofar as every one of Allah's warriors is capable of acting on his
own. The attacks on New York and Washington were very carefully coordinated,
the minutest details were thoroughly thought through, and at no stage were
there serious lapses. 
It would appear that the operation was organized and carried out by people
who had free passage around the country and were considered to be above
suspicion. If they are professionals, they did not acquire their experience
in underground terrorist groups. It cannot be excluded that the attacks were
organized by forces within the United States, and this would have to be
people with considerable military experience.

Why is it that no seems even to consider a conspiracy by far-right groups as
a possibility? The masterminds could easily have covertly used people of
Arab nationality to carry out the attacks.
Whoever it is behind the Washington and New York attacks, in Russia and
Israel they have already played a role comparable to the burning of the
Reichstag. Far-right politicians -- "upholders of the values of western
civilisation" -- have already spoken out calling for revenge. Over and over,
one and the same thing is repeated: "Moslems are subhuman barbarians and you
cannot conduct negotiations with them. They are not like us, and thus our
criteria of democracy and human rights do not apply to them." "No need to
fear unpopular measures," some say. "No need to limit ourselves to
democratic conventions," others chime in.

At a minimum they are after: arrests without warrants, mass deportations and
wide-scale searches. Already reports are coming from the United States of
racist attacks against Islamic communities. It is clear that mass
repressions will lead to mass resistance. That is how you make enemies. Do
those who are trying to scare us with the Moslem threat really not
understand that? They understand it full well. They simply believe that a
final solution is possible -- if not globally, then at least on a more
limited territory. As a maximum, they are baying for ethnic cleansing and
genocide.

Boris Kagarlitsky is a Moscow-based sociologist.





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